Hello, Sina netizens!
Host: Welcome to Sina guest chat room. Today we invited Hu Lifeng, chief fund analyst of Galaxy Securities, to talk about closed-end funds with all netizens. Welcome Mr. Hu Lifeng!
Hu Lifeng: Hello, Sina friends!
Moderator: After full adjustment, the market of closed-end funds soared again last week, with an average weekly increase of 10.84% in both cities. It is reported that dividend expectation has once again become the trigger of the closed-end fund market. What do you think?
Hu Lifeng: According to the Accounting Standards for Securities Investment Funds, dividends of closed-end funds should meet two conditions: the net income subject is positive and the net value after dividends should not be lower than the face value. As of June 30, 2006, the undistributed net income of closed-end funds was 12.802 billion yuan. The accumulated net income of closed-end funds in the third quarter was 5.376 billion yuan. Therefore, as of September 30, 2006, the distributable net income of closed-end funds was 18.178 billion yuan.
The willingness of fund management companies to cash dividends in the third quarter is not strong. As of December 15, 2006, the total net value of closed-end funds totaled 150.763 billion yuan, and closed-end funds achieved a net increase of 69.563 billion yuan.
RMB 69.563 billion consists of unrealized gains and realized net income. Generally speaking, based on the huge floating profits accumulated by closed-end funds, shares From the perspective of accounting, the adjustment process of combination is the process of large-scale carry over and floating surplus.
Based on the net income of 18.178 billion yuan from January to September, closed-end funds have accumulated a floating profit of 51.385 billion yuan since the fourth quarter of this year. It is preliminarily judged that half of the closed end fund carried forward in the fourth quarter was about 25.693 billion yuan. After deducting the implemented dividends, it is estimated that the net income of closed-end funds in 2006 is about 42.672 billion yuan. Dividend distribution refers to the distribution of part of the net asset value of the fund to the holders. The annual dividend of 42.672 billion yuan means that 28.30% of the fund assets are closed and opened. However, the dividend of 42.672 billion yuan was discounted by 24.04%, which is unreasonable and also the place where the market fails.
According to the practice over the years, on the first working day of the New Year, all closed-end funds should publish their unaudited dividend plans (actually, the dividend plans are formal dividend plans). Therefore, based on the calculation method of "compulsory right filling for closed-end fund dividend", 25 large cap closed-end funds have a 10% increase requirement before and after dividend distribution. It should be pointed out that the market will digest this factor in advance. On December 15, Fund clearing (500038) rose 9.92% on the same day after announcing the dividend plan of 0.14 yuan.
Moderator: What are the advantages and disadvantages of open-end funds and closed-end funds?
Hu Lifeng: Innovative closed-end funds are the internal innovation and self "sublation" in the development process of closed-end funds. With the development of the times, the innovation of theory and the progress of technology, the fund industry has emerged new features in the rapid development. The free redemption rules of open-end funds and the tradability rules of closed-end funds have emerged a trend of integration under the new market background. A large number of trading innovations are carried out around the free redemption rules and tradability rules, and there are new types of funds that absorb the advantages of closed and open funds. The successful operation of LOF and ETF has greatly broadened the vision of the domestic fund industry.
Although global open-end funds maintain the mainstream status, they also exposed their inherent defects in the development process, which are exactly the advantages of closed-end funds.
With the development of the market, emerging investment objects such as stock index futures and options will continue to be launched in the future. The high liquidity and short-term operation characteristics of the asset portfolio caused by the free purchase and redemption rules of open-ended funds have some conflicts with the medium and long-term maturities of some investment objects. However, the existing closed-end funds have some problems. In this context, the regulatory authorities put forward the development idea of innovative closed-end funds, which will be the third major development opportunity for China's fund industry. Through the development of innovative closed-end funds, the traditional closed-end funds will be driven out of the quagmire of high discounts and usher in a new world of development.
Recently, some LOF funds in Shenzhen Stock Exchange have experienced premium due to dividend incentives, which can be seen as an abuse of the 25% discount rate of closed-end funds in the same exchange to some extent. The tradable premium or liquidity premium caused by the tradability rules of LOF funds and closed-end funds is increasingly valued by the market.
Compere: What impact will the closed-end fund base reform have on closed-end funds?
Hu Lifeng: The closed-end fund base reform with the main idea of "stable transformation and win-win cooperation" will be widely launched in 2007. The base reform is a significant event in the development of the fund industry in 2007. The basic reform is a process of balancing the interests of closed-end fund holders and managers. The basic reform is to ensure that the interests of closed-end fund holders are protected significantly.
Fund Industrial successfully transformed into an open-ended fund on August 9. It is expected that a number of small cap closed-end funds will implement the basic reform this year, and the follow-up fund's basic reform plan is better than that of the Fund Xingye. From the current China Industrial Fund, Changsheng Tongzhi Fund, Dacheng Jingye Fund and the Great Wall Based on the comprehensive analysis of the opening of these four funds of Jiufu Fund, we are optimistic that in the first half of 2007, all small cap closed-end funds may be opened. In the second half of 2007, we will directly face Jintai and Kaiyuan, two funds established on March 27, 1998. If Jintai and Kaiyuan embark on the road of opening up, it means that the remaining 23 large cap closed-end funds are waiting in line for the basic reform.
The industry has not yet reached a consensus on whether the large cap closed-end funds represented by Jintai and Kaiyuan should be converted into open-end funds or innovative closed-end funds. It is expected that the development idea of "stock to open up, incremental innovation" will be recognized by most fund management companies.
Compere: What impact will the introduction of margin trading and stock index futures have on closed-end funds?
Hu Lifeng: In 2007, the margin trading business of securities companies will be officially launched. Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced the implementation rules of margin trading on August 21 this year. As a securities investment fund listed and traded on the exchange, closed-end funds can be used as collateral securities, and the conversion rate is 80% as bonds. As the closed end funds in Shenzhen Stock Exchange are closed to open, they will continue to retain the OTC trading mode in the form of LOF funds. Therefore, it is recommended to give priority to investing in the closed-end funds in Shenzhen Stock Exchange under the same conditions.
The open-end funds of OTC system are not eligible for financing and securities lending due to their lack of listing qualification, and the active short-term funds will increase their investment in closed-end funds. As collateral for margin trading, closed-end funds, based on the value of chips and valuable chips, will drive their secondary market prices to rise steadily. The idea of collateral will ease the redemption pressure of closed-end funds after they are re opened. After the launch of stock index futures, closed-end funds will be a better hedging tool.
Compere: What closed-end funds can investors with weak risk tolerance pay attention to?
Hu Lifeng: Investors with weak risk tolerance are suggested to pay attention to the "866" quasi open-end fund designed by the Research Center - a small cap closed-end fund that has been turned into an open fund around the Spring Festival, with an expected yield of 15% in three months. Moreover, it will be closed for three months to buy open-end funds.
Compere: What closed-end funds can investors with strong risk tolerance pay attention to?
Hu Lifeng: You can participate in 25 large cap closed-end funds. With December 15, 2006 as the benchmark, 25 large cap closed-end funds had a 30% increase in 2007. We think the reasonable discount rate is about 5%.
Compere: What risks should investors pay attention to when investing in funds these days?
Hu Lifeng: Now the market is extremely optimistic about closed-end funds. Pay attention to possible short-term adjustments, but medium - and long-term investors can continue to increase their positions by taking advantage of short-term fluctuations.
Moderator: Because of time, this chat is over. Thank you, Mr. Hu Lifeng!
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
