Teng Tai, Director of Galaxy Securities Research Institute: The 10-year bull market has just begun

In any country, in any era, if we can see that in the foreseeable future, the political environment is very stable, the international order is very good, the economy can continue to develop steadily and rapidly, the RMB is growing stronger, or the liquidity is very large, in this case, the long-term bull market is not very strange from the historical perspective.

　　 Global excess liquidity

Since 2000, the global liquidity surplus has appeared. What is its root? It's in dollars. Because the United States has performed the function of world currency provider, and the means of issuing currency can only be through the continuous purchase of goods from other countries with dollars, or to invest globally, which will result in huge trade deficits and capital deficits. Up to now, the US external debt has exceeded 55 trillion, which means that the excess liquidity of the US dollar has led to the excess liquidity of China. Because we will accumulate a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, we must increase the issuance of 8 RMB currencies for each additional US dollar of foreign exchange reserves, so as to transform the excess liquidity of the US dollar into the excess liquidity of RMB.

　　 Capital flows into the capital market

The excess liquidity was reflected in the rise of global real estate prices from 2000 to 2004. In the past four years, real estate prices in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities, including the United States, Canada, Australia and even Brazil, have continued to rise. During the period from 2004 to 2006, the excess currency flow was reflected in oil, copper and other commodities. In 2004, the global excess currency flow changed a way. In the next five years, not only China, including the United States, Hong Kong, Europe, but also major global capital markets will usher in a very large bull market, and China's bull market will last longer. Why does China's bull market last longer? On the one hand, the excess liquidity of RMB just mentioned needs to find an export. Either hyperinflation causes the rise of national prices, or capital prices replace the rise of commodity prices. After the rise of the prices of bulk products and real estate, stocks are the most important export.

Population dividend promotes sustained economic growth

The essence of China's good prospects for economic growth lies in its population. China has a population of 1.4 billion, with the population aged 15-56 accounting for 65% of the total population. These people are the components of a huge consumer market, as well as the providers of surplus products and savings capital. They ensure that China's economy will inevitably continue, stabilize and grow rapidly from three aspects, and this time can even last until 2020-2030, until the age of China's aging population.

　　 Once a decade of bull market

A person can only experience one bull market in his life. There were three bull markets in the United States from 1900 to 2000. The first was from 1917 to 1929, when Dow Jones rose more than 300%. The second bull market was from 1946-1965, when he first speculated in the semiconductor industry, then in the heavy chemical industry, and the third was from 1998 to 2000. It can be seen that if a person was 30 or 40 years old in 1917 and had certain assets to invest, he would not experience the bull market of 1946-1965 again. At present, China is ushering in the best investment opportunities in the capital market. Just as a series of institutional defects in the capital market in the past few years are being transformed, the results of China's growth are more reflected in the capital market. Therefore, there is no doubt that the prospect of China's securities market is promising. Any big bull market, whether in the United Kingdom or Taiwan, will have a group of middle class, It has a profound impact on economic changes.

　　 Investment strategy led by blue chips

On September 30, Galaxy Securities Center disclosed the report of the fourth quarter. Many ordinary people earned the index but did not make money. If they did not recalculate according to their rights, the index would still be 1750 per share, but the actual index had reached 2000 points, with banking stocks and real estate stocks accounting for the majority. In July, I published a book, New Wealth Theory, which talked about investment opportunities in the next ten years, In fact, the conclusion that there should be an accelerated appreciation of the RMB in the second half of the year is also correct. The day before yesterday Industrial and Commercial Bank of China The price in Hong Kong exceeds 4 yuan, while in China it is still 3.8 yuan. Why didn't the blue chip stocks that we ignored before go up? Because our investors tend to focus on short-term interests and sell them after a month without going up. For example, compared with the blue chips in Hong Kong and mainland China, the blue chips in Hong Kong are higher than the same stocks in mainland China, and the small cap stocks in mainland China are higher than the same stocks in Hong Kong. There will be progress in this regard

One step change, the best blue chip listed companies in the market are the main embodiment of China's economic growth.