Primary dealer of warrants GF Securities Huo Yulin
Recently, stimulated by the good news of the iron and steel industry, the positive shares of the iron and steel industry and the warrants are active together. except Baotou Steel JTB1 In addition, the premium rate of other steel warrants has fallen below 10%. In which, calculated according to the closing price on October 25, Ansteel JTC1 The premium rate of Angang Steel An increase of more than two percentage points, holding Angang JTC1 and exercising its rights when it expires, is equivalent to being able to purchase Angang shares at a market price lower than the current regular shares. In addition, the third quarter performance of Angang's regular shares will be announced next Monday, and the market is generally optimistic about Angang's regular shares. Judging from the recent performance of Angang's regular shares, Angang's shares rose by 7% on October 12 in a single day, while Angang's warrants are still more than a month away from the exercise. Therefore, the possibility of an additional 2% increase of Angang's regular shares before the expiration still exists.
Some investors may think that since they are optimistic Ansteel Positive shares, why not buy positive shares directly and buy Angang JTC1 at a distance? The answer can be obtained by analyzing the effective leverage, an important indicator of Anshan Steel's warrant. On October 25, the effective leverage of Angang JTC1 was 2.0674, which means that if Angang's regular stock rises by 1% in the future, Angang JTC1 will rise by more than 2%. If the same capital is invested in Angang's regular stock and Angang JTC1, the income of Angang JTC1 will be more than twice that of Angang's regular stock. Therefore, whether you are optimistic about the positive shares or buy the warrants depends on the effective leverage of the warrants. The greater the effective leverage, the stronger the ability to amplify the return on investment, which is also the characteristic of the warrants that "small is big".
Some more professional investors will find that the implied volatility of Angang JTC1 on October 25 was as high as 150.4%, while its historical volatility was only 38.5%. Does that mean Angang JTC1 is seriously overestimated? In fact, since Angang JTC1 is currently in the deep price, from a professional perspective, if the warrant price in the deep price changes slightly, the implied volatility will change significantly. Therefore, the reference value of implied volatility of warrants in deep price is low.
From the analysis of the above two indicators, it can be seen that Angang JTC1 is a good choice for investors who are optimistic about Angang's regular shares. Of course, with the approaching of the maturity date, time value is also an important consideration for Angang JTC1.
