□ Our reporter Li Jianfeng
As one of the first doomsday rounds in the mainland warrant market, Baosteel subscription and Vanke put share certain similarities. First, from the perspective of duration, the last trading day of Baosteel subscription is August 23, and the exercise date is August 30. The closing date of Vanke put is August 28, and the exercise date is August 29 to September 4, which is quite close in time. Secondly, both Baosteel's subscription and Vanke's put are out of price warrants, with their intrinsic values of 0. The price of warrants reflects the time value. However, since this week, Baosteel's subscription has rebounded sharply, with an increase of more than 50% in the past two trading days. After Vanke's put became the first "magic wheel", the price has been hovering at a low level, and in recent trading days, it has gone out of the obvious upward trend and downward trend.
The insiders pointed out that the difference between Baosteel's subscription and Vanke's put trend is mainly due to the fact that although both are out of price warrants, the degree of out of price warrants is very different. Based on yesterday's closing price, G Baosteel reported 4.17 yuan, while the exercise price of Baosteel warrants was 4.20 yuan. As long as the price of G Baosteel on the exercise date was 1% higher than the current price, the subscription of Baosteel would change from out of price warrants to in price warrants, thus having exercise value and not becoming a scrap of paper. However, G Vanke reported 6.18 yuan, and the latest exercise price put by Vanke was 3.64 yuan. In order for Vanke warrants to have exercise value upon expiration, G Vanke must decline by more than 40% in more than ten trading days, which is obviously extremely unlikely. Moreover, even if G Vanke dropped to 3.64 yuan at that time, under the current physical delivery system, a large number of buying orders at the time of exercise will also push up the share price, making the warrants from inside the price to outside the price again. Some speculative funds took advantage of this difference to adopt different speculation strategies for Baosteel's subscription and Vanke's subscription.
However, analysts also remind that although there is a possibility of exercise when Baosteel's subscription expires, based on yesterday's closing price, G Baosteel must rise by 13.81%, so investors who buy warrants and hold them at maturity can not lose money. At present, speculation is the main way to participate in the subscription of Baosteel. Ordinary investors must pay attention to the risks involved. If they are really optimistic about the future trend of G Baosteel, they might as well intervene in the positive shares.
