Guangzhou Securities Research Institute Lu Zhenning
On Wednesday, the A-share market as a whole showed a trend of rising and falling. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 22 points from the opening 17 points high to the closing SINOPEC (China Petrochemical Corporation And G Baosteel and other indicator stocks barely closed red under the protection of the market. When A-share performance was average, warrants continued the active trend of nearly half a month. Except for four warrants, which declined slightly, other varieties rose, and the trading volume also showed signs of amplification. The trading volume reached 11.6 billion yuan, exceeding the trading amount of Shenzhen A-share on that day. Set a new record low in the last few trading days Baosteel JTB1 The increase of 13.9% ranked first. Put warrants rose in full volume by borrowing A-shares, Airport JTP1 It rose by 12% and the turnover rate reached 322%.
From the perspective of the macro environment, valuation analysis and pattern trend, the signs of A-share entering the adjustment period are becoming more and more obvious. The continued downturn in trading volume and the huge increase in new share subscription funds reflect that investors are more and more cautious about the future market. Therefore, the recent hot money shows signs of continuous return to the warrant market. The put warrants, which can be profitable when the stock market falls, have become the focus of hot money in the near future, and the turnover rate has remained at a high level for nearly half a month. As A-share has shown signs of weak rebound, it is expected that the pressure of adjustment on Thursday will further increase, and put warrants are expected to remain active in the short term. However, it is worth noting that the recent trend of put warrants is not completely related to the positive shares. For example, Airport JTP1, the positive shares fell by only 0.03 yuan, but Airport JTP1 rose by more than 0.13 yuan, which is very speculative. Once the positive shares stop falling and recover, the rate of decline of put warrants will also be very surprising. If investors participate in the put warrant transaction, they need to do a good job in risk control.
Baosteel JTB1: As the earliest warrant expiring, the current price is still far higher than the theoretical value and intrinsic value, and the risk is relatively high. Since the price of regular stock G Baosteel is obviously undervalued, and its early increase has also lagged behind the market, there is an opportunity to make up for it in the future. Baosteel JTB1 may also take the opportunity to rebound. It is expected that its future market trend will run in the path of "pulse rebound - adjustment - innovation low - rebound". Considering the maturity risk, it is recommended that general investors avoid this variety. Investors with strong risk tolerance can pay short-term attention when the positive stock rebounds.
Airport JTP1: one of the most active varieties in the near future. The extremely high turnover rate shows that hot money is deeply involved. However, because the price has been seriously overestimated, further increase will face greater pressure to create. It is expected that in the short term, high volatility will prevail.
Shanghai Market JTP1 As a product with relatively low premium rate and relatively high leverage ratio, it will have the opportunity to remain active in the stock market adjustment cycle.
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