Ping An Securities Zhou Ping
Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index showed an upward trend. The Shenzhen Composite Index opened at 4182.31 and closed at 4221.84, up 38.56 points. The turnover of the two markets was 31.2 billion yuan, which was at the average level last week.
In terms of warrants, affected by the rise of the market, the warrant rose slightly, with the maximum increase not exceeding 5%; except Haier JTP1 The put warrants fell sharply, especially in the afternoon, due to the strong rise of the market, most of the put warrants fell by 10%.
Judging from the market turnover rate, investors' enthusiasm for investing in warrants is weakening. In the past week, the turnover rate of the warrant market has gradually declined from 103.64% last Tuesday to 58.70% yesterday. In addition, although the put warrants fell sharply yesterday, their trading should also be active in the call warrants. The average turnover rate of the put warrants was 64.29%, higher than the 49.22% turnover rate of the call warrants. This, to some extent, indicates that speculators of warrants are more bearish on the market when the current trend of A-share market is not clear.
With the recovery of the rights and securities market last week, securities companies began to apply for establishment. So far, the created warrants include Haier JTP1 First JTB1 、 Airport JTP1 , Wanhua JTP1 Maotai JCP1 Etc. The creation of put warrants by securities firms indicates that they are optimistic about positive shares; The creation of a warrant indicates that it is short of the underlying shares or that the price of the warrant seriously deviates from its theoretical value. It was the first JTB1, with the exercise price of 4.4 yuan, the stock price of 4.8 yuan, and the internal value of 0.4 yuan. The price of JTB1 was 2.258 yuan, which means that the time value was 1.858 yuan, and the warrant price seriously deviated from the theoretical value. If the securities firm creates at the current price, buys the positive shares and sells the warrants, and if the warrants are exercised at the maturity, the securities firm will have a 38.7% return ((4.4+2.258)/4.8-1) * 100=38.7%). On the contrary, if the warrants are out of the price upon expiration and cannot be exercised, the stock price will fall to 2.54 yuan (4.8-2.258=2.54 yuan) before the creation of a securities firm may lose money. However Capital stock The probability of falling to 2.54 yuan is very small. For the put warrants, the creation of securities companies bears less risk, and the cost is only the capital cost of pledging in Zhongdeng Company, unlike the creation of warrants, which also needs to face the risk of falling stocks. Moreover, most of the put warrants issued during the share reform are high-quality blue chip companies, which are more likely to be out of price when they expire, thus further reducing the risk of securities firms creating warrants.
The creation of securities companies will restrain the rising space of warrants. Therefore, we recommend investors to avoid the possible created warrants when investing in warrants. Focus on speculators who are short of the market and have high risk tolerance Shenneng JTP1 , today's turnover rate is as high as 111.61%, and there is no possibility to create warrants.
