Sun Lin of CITIC Jintong Securities
In fact, there is no much suspense about the market adjustment launched in the middle and late October, which is a temporary break in the process of market operation. However, this round of adjustment subtly shows the investors' "sentient beings". Some people are thinking about how the adjustment can take place, some are thinking about when to copy the bottom, and some are deeply confused in the current market.
In fact, any adjustment has both common market factors and the characteristics of the industry itself, which is worth careful analysis by investors on related industries. For example, the coal industry is still a relatively resilient sector in the "May 30" adjustment, but it is relatively weak in this round of adjustment. From the perspective of the sector alone, this is mainly related to the failure of the market to get good cooperation with the third quarter performance of listed companies in the coal sector.
Since this year, the domestic coal price has risen significantly, so the market generally expects that the performance of listed companies in the coal industry will also be outstanding. However, due to the impact of industry regulation policies, with the rise of coal prices, the cost and expense of the coal industry have increased significantly, affecting the level of net profit. In addition, the terminal price rise caused by transportation bottlenecks did not benefit the upstream manufacturers, but only reflected in the sales channels, so the impact of the price rise on the performance of the upstream manufacturers was not as optimistic as the market expectations. According to the third quarter reports released by listed companies, the coal industry performance growth is relatively stable without major surprises, and the third quarter report performance of some companies is significantly lower than expected.
At present, the P/E ratio of the coal sector in 2007 is about 42 times, and the predicted P/E ratio in 2008 is about 38 times, which is second only to the communication culture industry and social service industry. With reference to the growth rate of its performance in the third quarter, the current valuation of the coal sector is slightly high, so the current adjustment can be understood as a reasonable release of the market for the high valuation.
In the long run, short-term adjustments have reduced the pressure on valuation, and there is still room for the coal sector to rise. First of all, coal prices at home and abroad remain high. On December 3, the spot price of coal in Qinhuangdao continued to rise slightly, including 354 yuan/ton for ordinary blended coal, 540 yuan/ton for excellent blended Datong, and 498 yuan/ton for excellent blended Shanxi. At present, the price of all kinds of coal has reached a new high since 2003. International coal CIF price and transaction price also kept rising, November 29 Australia The spot price of BJ coal reached 90.25 US dollars/ton, and the index closed at 282 points. This price has hit a record high since 1998 for seven consecutive weeks. At the same time, due to the international Crude oil price The substitution advantage of coal becomes more and more prominent when it operates at a high level, and the international demand for coal will also maintain a sustained growth level, which may lead to the rise of coal prices. Secondly, the growth rate of domestic fixed assets in 2007 slowed down as a whole compared with previous years, indicating that in the next 1-1.5 years, the new production capacity will decline compared with previous years. Under the trend of low growth of fixed asset investment, we expect the future coal output to be tight. Third, in RMB appreciation The value of resource products such as coal will gradually reflect under the general background of.
In general, compared with other industry sectors in the market, coal sector companies have excellent performance and operational stability. Stimulated by the rise of coal prices, the performance of coal listed companies will still show a good level. However, it is worth noting that, as the transportation bottleneck still exists, whether the inventory growth can effectively lead to an increase in supply needs further observation.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
