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Citic Guoan 1.7 billion warrant financing and expected exercise profit is unknown

http://www.sina.com.cn    10:13, September 18, 2009    Beijing Business Daily

   Whether the exercise can benefit is more complicated

Business News (Reporter Wang Dan) Yesterday was the last trading day of Guoan GAC1 (031005, hereinafter referred to as "Guoan Warrant"), which continued its crazy slump and ended with a 56.87% decline, closing at 1.19 yuan CITIC Guoan It was reported as 18.70 yuan.

Since the exercise price is 17.576 yuan/share, the exercise cost of Guoan Warrants is 17.576+1.19=18.766 yuan based on the closing price yesterday, which is basically the same as the share price of CITIC Guoan on the same day. That is to say, if the share price of CITIC Guoan is unchanged, the exercise cost of investors who purchase warrants at the closing price will not be too low, If the stock price of CITIC Guoan rises today, they will benefit from the exercise. Yesterday, the three minute collective auction at the end of the market showed that there were still 131000 deals at the last moment. It can be seen that many investors came to "bet" on the profitability after the exercise. In any case, the emergence of the exercise value has made CITIC Guoan, which was eyeing the 1.7 billion yuan warrant financing before, a step closer to achieving its goal.

Liu Feng, an analyst at Zhongyuan Securities, pointed out that from the current situation, Guoan warrants are more likely to be exercised. Compared with the exercise, the loss of warrant holders will be more. Even if an investor bought at the highest price of 2.988 yuan yesterday, if he exercises, although the cost is 20.564 yuan, as long as the stock price of CITIC Guoan is not less than 17.58 yuan when he exercises and sells, he still has relatively small losses. Based on the 18.70 yuan stock price of CITIC Guoan, if it is to fall below 17.58 yuan, its cumulative decline must exceed 6% of the current stock price from today to September 24.

"To maintain this downward space, I believe that there is no big problem in CITIC Guoan." Liu Feng said, "However, whether investors can make a profit through the exercise is still unknown." He believed that if the warrants are held more intensively at present, then the main force, in order to make a profit, will raise the positive shares within the day of the end of the exercise; However, if the warrants are currently held in a decentralized manner, that is, they are held by retail investors, then the main force of CITIC Guoan in the equity market will naturally be unwilling to let the rights executors reap the benefits of the beneficiaries, and the situation of losses in the exercise of Kangmei's rights and warrants may be repeated. However, he judged from the open trading information of warrants in Shenzhen Stock Exchange that the main force of speculation in warrants was basically cleared yesterday.

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