Anson Securities Zhu Jian
Rizhao CWB1 It has entered the exercise period, although at present Rizhao Port The stock price is lower than the exercise price, but some investors still fail to rationally understand the impact of Rizhao CWB1's exercise and still choose to exercise, causing unnecessary losses.
The profit and loss of investors' investment in warrants can be divided into two parts. One is the cost of warrant purchase. If investors fail to sell warrants before the last trading day, the cost of this part will be totally lost; The second is the profit and loss of exercise. If the price of equity is higher than the exercise price, investors can obtain the exercise income; On the contrary, if the positive share price is lower than the exercise price, the investor will choose to exercise, which will increase the loss. Whether investors can make profits by purchasing warrants and holding them to maturity mainly depends on whether the exercise income can compensate the purchase cost of warrants. Taking Rizhao CWB1 as an example, the exercise price of the warrant is 7.08 yuan/share, and the exercise ratio is 1 to 2. If an investor buys 1000 Rizhao CWB1 at a price of 3 yuan/share, if the Rizhao Port share price is lower than 7.08 yuan during the exercise period, the investor should choose not to exercise, so that only 3000 yuan of purchase cost loss will be borne, but if the investor chooses to exercise, more losses will be incurred; If the share price of Rizhao Port is higher than 7.08 yuan but lower than 8.58 yuan (7.08+3.00/2) during the exercise period, investors should choose to exercise. At this time, the exercise income can compensate part of the warrant purchase cost, and investors will lose 0-3000 yuan; If the stock price is higher than 8.58 yuan during the exercise period, investors should choose to exercise. At this time, the exercise income can compensate the purchase cost of all warrants, and investors will get real investment income.
On November 27, 2008, the share price of Rizhao Port was 4.91 yuan, which was lower than the exercise price. At this time, the investor should choose not to exercise and bear the loss of 3000 yuan of warrant purchase cost. If the investor insisted on exercising, he would also bear an additional exercise loss of 2.17 yuan (7.08-4.91) per share. The total exercise loss would reach 4340 yuan (2.17 × 1000 × 2), and his warrant investment would lose 7340 yuan (3000+4340) in total Yuan. It can be seen that when the current positive share price is lower than the exercise price, investors should not exercise blindly to avoid unnecessary losses. Some investors may be difficult to accept the result of the total loss of the cost of purchasing Rizhao CWB1, and try to prove that such warrant investment has not lost in vain through the exercise behavior. This irrational behavior will only cause more losses. If investors are optimistic about Rizhao Port stocks, they can buy them directly from the secondary market.
Rizhao CWB1 still has three exercise days to go. In the next three trading days, even if Rizhao Hong Kong shares continue to rise and fall, its share price can only reach about 6.53 yuan, still lower than the exercise price. Investors should accept the reality and rationally analyze the impact of exercise.
November 28, 2008
