News from our newspaper (reporter Wan Yong) China Southern Airlines JTP1 has been experiencing an abnormal large-scale oscillation trend recently, and it closed up 35.11% yesterday. GF Securities pointed out that although its price is only about 0.6 yuan, its premium rate is high, and the investment risk is large. Investors should remain rational and stay away from the speculation of China Southern Airlines warrants.
GF Securities believes that the recent abnormal fluctuations in the warrants of China Southern Airlines are mainly due to the speculation caused by the dispute over the reasonableness of the creation of warrants in the market, but investors should look at it from the perspective of value analysis. At present, the warrant price of China Southern Airlines is about 0.6 yuan. Based on the analysis of premium rate indicators, the premium rate is about 72%, and the warrant price is overvalued. In other words, if China Southern Airlines warrants are purchased and held to maturity, then Southern airlines Only when the stock falls by more than 72% can it make profits, otherwise investors will face losses.
At present, mainstream institutions give a positive evaluation to China Southern Airlines. The company's main business income in 2007 was 50 billion yuan, and the expected net profit for the whole year was 3 billion yuan. Industry researchers believe that the average EPS from 2007 to 2008 was 0.51-1.04 yuan, and the average annual net profit growth from 2007 to 2010 reached 54.8%. If the company is given 25 times the PE valuation level in 2008, the corresponding reasonable price is 26 yuan, China Southern Airlines has a certain medium-term investment value. It can be seen that there is little possibility of a decline of more than 72% for China Southern Airlines in the future. In addition, in addition to the intrinsic value of China Southern Airlines' put warrants is zero, their maturity date is June 13, and the remaining time is only four months. The time value is also low, and the time value will accelerate to decline with the approaching of the maturity date, so the risk is high.
