The gluttonous banquet of warrant speculation is coming to an end
Zhang Biao's Daily Economic News In a few days, the most extraordinary year in the history of Chinese warrants will soon pass. In this year, the capital giant set off a huge wave, and the so-called "Potash Yizhuang" won countless praise. However, extreme speculation forced the regulators to hit the jackpot. They closely monitored the warrant trading like playing basketball "close to man to man defense". The move of "only allow to fall but not rise" and its short-term effect have been predicted - in 2008, the gluttonous feast of warrant speculation will end. The highest level of speculation "Yizhuang" appears as a shipment
This year, although as many as 20 warrant varieties have expired and withdrawn from the market, there are only 12 (not including the SFC1 of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which is in the exercise period and will be cancelled on Saturday), which is just a few drops of water compared with the number of listed warrants in Germany and Hong Kong, China, which are 250000 and 4109 respectively. However, as of the first 10 months, the total trading volume of warrants on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges has been 2.5 times and 2.2 times that of Germany and Hong Kong respectively. This year, the total trading volume has become the world's largest. The creation of this "great achievement" mainly comes from the peak hype of some put warrants by securities companies and capital giants, which is concentrated in June and July. as Potash fertilizer JTP1 Only in the four trading days from May 29 to June 4, it rose from 0.844 yuan to a maximum of 8.05 yuan, a ninefold increase. and CMB CMP1 In the two weeks from May 29 to June 12, it increased from 0.372 yuan to 4.949 yuan at the highest, more than 10 times! The stock price rose too high and too fast, which brought huge profit opportunities to short-term speculators, but also caused difficulties for the dealers themselves to ship. Therefore, the sad story of "Potash Yizhuang" began to unfold. Before the last trading day of Potash JTP1, someone took the initiative to post in one of the most popular shares in China, claiming that they were willing to sacrifice half of the profit tray for the benefit of retail investors and would not let the worthless Potash JTP1 go to zero. After Potash JTP1 finally received more than 0.1 yuan, the "righteous act" of the "Potash Yizhuang" won the praise of a large number of rights people, and in nearly 2 million followers so far, the words of praise were overwhelming. The so-called "build a plank road openly and spend time secretly" has covered the dealer's huge profits on other put cards and retreated completely. Strict supervision, light trading and investment, more difficult to make money by speculation next year
The above "Potash Yizhuang" is not a clever trick that can win the praise and follow the trend of so many retail investors. It is precisely because the consequences of the lack of system and poor supervision in China's securities market over the years have been borne by too many vulnerable groups of retail investors who have neither power nor money, It makes retail investors look for a savior in the dangerous Jianghu as they look for the stars and the moon! This situation is worthy of our government and regulators to think deeply. The highly speculative atmosphere has made a large number of rights holders suffer heavy losses. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have finally introduced key monitoring measures, taken measures to restrict trading, reported to the CSRC for investigation and punishment, and temporarily suspended trading despite rising prices. Then, on September 26, another record was born in the history of Chinese securities: three temporary suspensions, each longer than the other, made CIMC ZYP1 The total trading time of the day is only 8 minutes. Strict supervision and the more rational people of power make the trading in the power market become less and less since the fourth quarter, and the put certificate keeps falling, even when the stock index drops sharply, there is no big wave. In fact, in this year's gluttonous banquet of warrant speculation, the biggest gainer is not hot money, but the securities dealers who enjoy the advantages of creating systems. The very low cost wins the very high income, which makes the securities traders happy. According to the statistics of Guojin Securities, in the first half of the year alone, the revenue of 19 innovative securities companies involved in the creation of warrants exceeded 4.4 billion yuan. According to the research of CSCI, for China Southern Airlines JTP1, if the closing price on the first day after the listing of the creation warrant is taken as the selling price, and the closing price on the announcement day is taken as the buying price when the warrant is cancelled, then as long as the positive stock price of China Southern Airlines JTP1 is above 7.43 yuan when it expires, Up to now, the warrants created by China Southern Airlines JTP1 will bring about 19 billion yuan of income to securities companies (without considering the cost of capital and transaction costs)! Looking forward to 2008, the only three put warrants will be delisted at the end of the first half of the year. The newly listed call warrants such as Guoan GAC1 Rizhao CWB1 At present, the premium rate is so high that it is difficult to gain the favor of more and more rational investors. There are few trading varieties and it is difficult to speculate, which will make the trading volume in the power market greatly reduced compared with that in 2007. Therefore, it can be determined that the profits of the securities companies to create and speculate on hot money warrants will shrink significantly next year. In terms of investment opportunities, the volatility of the stock index next year will be far greater than that in 2007 and 2006, and it will be more difficult to make money by speculating warrants. Investors should be cautious in their operations. It is suggested to focus on the steel subscription certificates such as WISCO CWB1 and Pangang GFC1, and the long-term negative premium Wuliang YGC1 。
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