Many friends have started to speculate on the warrant of China Southern Airlines. One of them asked, how much can the warrant of China Southern Airlines rise? I seriously thought about whether it would rise to 8 yuan like the potash fertilizer warrant once. I told him responsibly that in theory it would not exceed 3.71 yuan.
Why does it not exceed 3.71 yuan? In the most extreme case, if the shares of China Southern Airlines fall to 0.01 yuan, according to the exercise price of China Southern Airlines warrants of 7.43 yuan and the exercise ratio of 1:0.5, the value of China Southern Airlines warrants will become 3.71 yuan. Therefore, theoretically, the highest price of China Southern Airlines warrants is 3.71 yuan.
For an investment product whose value will never exceed 3.71 yuan, its price should not exceed 3.71 yuan. Of course, this is the result of everyone's rationality. However, in the process of warrant speculation, irrationality is often much stronger than rationality. Think about the last day of potash's warrants, even if Salt lake potash fertilizer On the down limit, potash fertilizer warrants are still waste paper, but they are such a kind of transaction that they still keep a red market in the morning. The last one is close to the closing, which is destined to become a fundraising order. There is a large amount of money to buy at 0.107 yuan. If we only look at the transaction of potash fertilizer warrants, this purchase is obviously irrational. Therefore, as long as there are irrational transactions, it does not rule out the possibility that China Southern Airlines' warrants will rise more than 3.71 yuan.
In fact, it's boring to discuss the price of 3.71 yuan, because in the foreseeable future, China Southern Airlines shares It is unlikely to fall to 0.01 yuan. To borrow a friend's words, it's just different degrees of boredom. In my opinion, speculation in warrants is a boring sport that arises because there are too many boring people. Take the CMB warrants as an example. If there were no boring people, no one would buy the CMB warrants at the current price. All holders of CMB warrants would sell the warrants at no cost to the local market. All securities dealers who are qualified to create CMB warrants would create them endlessly until they sold out all the purchases at RMB 0.001, and then permanently sealed the historical limit of RMB 0.001.
From a rational point of view, the above approach is completely correct and impeccable. However, the fact is that there are still many boring people buying CMB warrants, and no one has ever sold CMB warrants. Innovative securities firms can stop creating CMB warrants. This shows that boring people always exist, and the warrant market is difficult to contain. If you want to survive and make a profit in this market, you should either ignore the boring people or make yourself more boring. If you also study the reasonable valuation of China Southern Airlines warrants, it shows that your boredom is not enough. Maybe people with higher boredom can earn money from people with lower boredom.
Zhou Kejing
