Our reporter Cai Zhijie reports from Shanghai
On April 9, with the first 20% increase of Wuliang warrant in recent months, after several weeks of downturn in the warrant market, it finally began to rise more than 10% every day.
On April 17, Shouchuang Warrants began to exercise, and 727.5 million WISCO warrants issued with the convertible bonds of WISCO's separate trading began to be listed and traded with the strength of closing the trading limit at the opening. On April 19, Wanhua Butterfly Warrant started its "doomsday round" craziness.
Crazy reappearance of capital craze
According to recent data, compared with the stock market's ups and downs and the record number of transactions, the warrant market has significantly warmed up and the trading volume has surged.
In the five trading days from April 9 to April 13, the total transaction amount of the warrant market reached 86.653 billion yuan, an increase of 66% over the previous week, including 65.675 billion yuan of call warrants, with an average turnover rate of 190.65%; Put warrants were sold for 20.979 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 708.26%. The average increase of call warrants and put warrants was 14.14% and 11.50% respectively.
Wuliang warrant rose 17.66% on April 9, and the cumulative increase in the following working days reached 52.62%, ranking first in the increase of warrant. Guodian Warrant was also unwilling to be outdone. On the 12th and 13th consecutive days, it was up 20% and nearly 30% weekly.
Yang Guoping, senior analyst of Shenyin Wanguo derivatives, said that these two warrants were mainly driven by the expectation of positive equity asset injection, which was able to interpret the sudden wealth of the warrant market myth 。
However, relevant market insiders said that, in addition to the above conceptual factors boosting individual varieties, "there is only one explanation for the popularity of the entire warrant market" - the high price of the market rose, and the funds in the market carefully avoided risks, thus turning to the warrant market.
In addition, the craziness of the warrant market is inseparable from the enthusiasm of the funds for it.
It is worth noting that in the online priority placement of WISCO's separate bonds, although the original shareholders of tradable shares with unlimited selling conditions gave up 23% of the total amount of preemptive subscriptions, their 1.237% winning bid rate almost hit a new low among the five issued separate bonds.
"This seems to be more expressive. The 727.5 million WISCO warrants issued with the convertible bonds of WISCO's separate transaction are actually mostly popular offline capital flows," said an analyst.
In fact, in the list of offline warrants, central enterprises, listed companies, securities dealers, funds, QFII Enterprise annuity More than 300 institutions have shared nearly 4 billion yuan of separate debt. Among them, 37 institutions applied according to the upper limit, and each was allocated RMB 46.376 million in proportion.
It was reported that, according to the enthusiastic subscription of institutions at that time, most of the holders of tradable shares without restrictions who gave up the allotment should be individual investors.
About institutional strength
"Maybe it is the small and medium-sized investors who are gradually mature and pay more attention to the stable investment model", Qian Xiangjin, a registered analyst of CITIC Jintong Securities, told the reporter, "of course, it is not ruled out that quite a few investors are more willing to take profits and wait for the opportunity."
In the warrant market, although the retail investors who are sought after have a great deal of initiative, institutional investors are still a force that cannot be ignored, especially innovative securities firms that can create the same kind of warrants.
At present, there are only 10 call warrants and 9 put warrants in the warrant market, while Yago warrants and Changdian warrants are also facing delisting. At the end of May, it is estimated that there will be only 8 call warrants, 6 of which are non creatable equity warrants, and only 4 put warrants will be traded. With the expiration and delisting of share reform warrants, the total circulation share of the warrant market will decrease significantly. At the same time, the reduction of the number of warrants makes the proportion of non creatable equity warrants in the total number of warrants more and more large.
On April 16, the Capital Warrant ended its trading for nearly a year, and finally closed at 5.291 yuan Capital stock At the price of 9.97 yuan, the premium rate is about -2.79%. This warrant is also the third call warrant that ended with a negative premium this year.
If you choose to exercise, you will get at least 2% of the income, but Capital shares are not generally favored. "If 142 million warrants are exercised, then the income from selling them shares , which means that 142 million restricted shares will be listed and circulated, while the circulation of A-share of Capital shares is only 780 million at present, which may have a certain impact on the stock price. Therefore, even if there is a negative premium rate, we still do not recommend buying the Capital Warrant. " Ping An Securities said.
Since the end of March, major securities firms, including Guotai Jun'an, Ping An, China Merchants, Shenyin Wanguo, Donghai, Guoxin, Changjiang, Huatai Securities, etc., have published the announcement of canceling the warrants of the first shares, instead of exercising.
Market participants said that if securities companies want to avoid exercising, they must buy back the warrants and cancel them before the last trading day of the warrants. At that time, if the speculative atmosphere in the market is overheated and the warrant price may be pushed up, the return process of the value of the warrants will no longer exist, and the securities companies have the risk of closing positions, that is, the market speculative funds deliberately raise the warrant price significantly, and the securities companies cannot buy back and cancel the warrants at a reasonable price as scheduled.
Source: Economic Observer
