Guosen Securities
Yesterday, the warrant market was generally calm, except WISCO JTP1 In addition, the rise and fall of most varieties did not exceed 10%, but the one-day amplitude and rise and fall of WISCO JTP1 set new records in the history of warrants. The lowest price of Wuhan Iron and Steel Group JTP1 yesterday was 0.056 yuan, and the highest price was 0.366 yuan. The amplitude was up to 543.87%, with a closing increase of 98.28%.
Two share reform warrants of WISCO, WISCO JTB1 The transaction with Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 will be closed on November 15, while the exercise date will be November 22. Today is the last trading day of these two warrants. At present, Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1, which has a low absolute price, is extremely sensitive to changes in stock prices. According to yesterday's closing data, the leverage ratio of Wuhan Iron and Steel Group JTP1 reached 52.83. Assuming that the market price of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 closed yesterday was a reasonable market positioning, which included the market's expectation of the possible share price when the normal shares of Wuhan Iron and Steel Group were due to exercise, then every 0.01 yuan of fluctuation in the normal shares of Wuhan Iron and Steel Group might bring 17.54% fluctuations to Wuhan Iron and Steel Group JTP1. Yesterday, Wuhan Iron and Steel Group JTP1 staged a spectacular run of doomsday. Such short-term speculation is extremely risky. Yesterday, the floating loss of the funds that were purchased by Wuhan Iron and Steel Group JTP1 at an average closing price of 0.180 yuan and not sold reached more than 36.11%.
The current exercise price of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 is 2.83 yuan, that is to say, based on the average price of yesterday, the holding cost of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 needs to ensure that the stock price of Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation's regular shares on the exercise date is below 2.65 yuan (the cumulative decline in the remaining seven trading days needs to reach 17.45%), so that no loss can occur (excluding the transaction cost).
By comparison, the theoretical value of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 at the close of yesterday was 0.591 yuan, and the market closing price was 0.631 yuan, which was within a relatively reasonable range. However, it is worth noting that although the closing price of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 rose only 2.93%, the amplitude was as high as 38.83%, and the time-sharing trend was not similar to Wuhan Iron and Steel's main stock, but was affected by the fluctuation of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1. Although we can think that the change of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 represents the pessimistic expectation of the market on the positive shares and spot market of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. to a certain extent, with its current theoretical value of less than 0.001 yuan, such a high price is absolutely unreasonable. In the last trading day, the probability of decline of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 is far greater than that of rise.
