"The Last Wheel" WISCO JTB1 Last Friday, taking advantage of the market adjustment, capital outflows from A-shares and Wuhan Iron and Steel Group Corporation's positive shares rose slightly against the trend, rising by more than 14%. Short term speculation is very obvious, and the risks behind it cannot be ignored.
According to the calculation, as of last Friday, the closing price of WISCO was 2.95 yuan, and the theoretical price of WISCO JTB1 was 0.335 yuan, WISCO JTP1 The theoretical price is 0.027 yuan (the parameter is calculated based on the historical fluctuation rate of 27.6% and the risk-free interest rate of 2.25% in the 180 trading days before the regular shares). If the closing prices of the call and put warrants on last Friday are 0.451 yuan and 0.185 yuan respectively, the prices of the two warrants are very high. Up to now, there are only 13 trading days left for the two WISCO warrants, and the time value has approached zero, while WISCO JTB1 still has a premium of 4.1%, representing that the positive shares of WISCO will rise by more than 4%, and participation in the exercise of WISCO JTB1 will be valuable. Otherwise, the purchase of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 at the current price at the expiration of the exercise may face losses. Considering that it is difficult for Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation's regular shares to rise significantly in the current weak market, investors should rationally measure the risk and their ability to bear the risk before buying Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation JTB1.
For investors who intend to hold WISCO warrants and participate in the exercise, at least the following details of exercise should be considered:
First, the exercise prices of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 and Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 were adjusted on June 9 this year due to the dividend distribution of equity shares. The latest exercise price of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 was adjusted from 2.90 yuan to 2.62 yuan, and the latest exercise price of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 was adjusted from 3.13 yuan to 2.83 yuan. Second, fractional shares held by investors can also participate in the exercise. Third, for investors who hold both Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 and Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1, if they do not own Wuhan Iron and Steel regular shares, the two warrants cannot be exercised on the same day. Therefore, if the investors do not intend to purchase additional regular shares of WISCO, they need to exercise their rights to JTB1 of WISCO from November 16 to November 21, and then to JTP1 of WISCO on or after the next day. Obviously, if investors expect that WISCO's share price will not fluctuate significantly before the expiration, holding WISCO JTB1 and WISCO JTP1 at the same time will be equivalent to giving money to the market for nothing. Fourth, the real profits and losses of investors participating in the exercise should also consider the transaction costs and exercise fees to avoid unnecessary losses. However, Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 still has the risk of holding shares overnight, which investors cannot be unaware of.
Generally speaking, for the "doomsday round" of WISCO warrants, unless investors have rich experience and have a strong expectation of the fluctuation of the stock price, it is recommended that investors avoid being the first to follow blindly.
(GF, the primary dealer of warrants negotiable securities Huo Yulin)
