Guangzhou Securities Research Institute Lu Zhenning
The warrant market was mixed on Wednesday, except WISCO JTB1 Except for a rebound of nearly 9%, the rise and fall of other varieties were not large. The turnover rate of 44% is slightly larger than that of the previous period, but still at a low level, indicating that the popularity of the warrant market is still relatively low.
Since mid September, the warrant market has entered a new round of value return, and many warrants have hit new lows after listing. According to statistics, from September 21 to October 11, there were 17 warrants with a cumulative decline of more than 10%, including those expiring within the year Shenneng JTP1 , WISCO JTB1 Airport JTP1 、 WISCO JTP1 The decline was more than 30%. The last trading date of Shenneng JTP1 is October 19, with only six trading days left. Its intrinsic value is 0, and the probability of exercise at maturity is very low, which means that investors holding Shenneng JTP1 after October 19 are likely to suffer 100% losses. The trend of Shenneng JTP1 and those that have bid farewell to the market Vanke HRP1 Very similar, the lowest price of 0.185 yuan on Wednesday is less than 10% of the highest price at the beginning of listing, and it is likely to continue to decline to 0.001 yuan in the future. Therefore, investors should resolutely avoid Shenneng JTP1. Even if there is a rebound in the session, the risk is far greater than the return, so it is not recommended to participate.
Although the adjustment range of warrants has been very large, there have even been Wanhua HXB1 、 Valin JTP1 However, the overall valuation of the warrant market is still on the high side. Under the influence of the rapid decline of varieties that continue to become new "doomsday rounds", the overall value will continue to return. Due to large differences in valuation levels and residual duration between different varieties, the future trend will be differentiated. Varieties with relatively reasonable pricing, such as Wanhua HXB1 and Valin JTP1, will be closely linked with the positive stock in the future. Some warrants with relatively small price bubbles will also have periodic opportunities when the positive shares become stronger. Typical varieties include Wuliang YGC1 、 Hangang JTB1 and Yago QCB1 Etc. The long-term downward trend of warrants with huge premium remains unchanged. At present, warrants with a premium rate of more than 30% include CIMC ZYP1 、 First JTB1 、 Yago QCP1 、 Maotai JCP1 、 Wanhua HXP1 、 Wuliang YGP1 、 CMB CMP1 。 The risks of "doomsday round" and "quasi doomsday round" are extremely high. In addition to Shenzhen Energy JTP1, Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1, Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 Ansteel JTC1 Airport JTP1 will also expire within the year, and investors also need to pay attention to risks. In the context of A shares entering the bull market cycle, there is little opportunity for the put warrants to exercise, so the put warrants of Wuhan Iron and Steel Group JTP1 and Airport JTP1 are particularly risky.
In the short term, due to the huge cumulative decline and the signs of slightly amplified transactions, the warrant market also has the opportunity to rebound locally under the general trend of value return. because Steel price Increase, the recent trend of steel stocks has been active, and some steel warrants can also be properly concerned. In addition, the cancellation of creation warrants by securities companies may also stimulate the rebound of corresponding varieties. For example, Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 and Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1, which rebounded on Wednesday, are the varieties with more cancellation shares of creation warrants on the same day.
