Guosen Securities
Last week, the warrant market rebounded significantly on Thursday after experiencing continuous decline. Put warrants rose alarmingly last Thursday, with an average increase of 27%, of which the biggest increase was in the exercise period Airport JTP1 , up 53.93%. The call warrants also showed a collective upward trend on Friday morning due to the sharp rise of the put warrants the day before yesterday, but the cumulative increase was not significant until the closing due to the weekend effect on Friday afternoon. The weekly average increase of warrants in both cities reached 13.59%, including 1.83% for subscription and 20.51% for put.
It is worth noting that the rebound in the warrant market last week was highly speculative and was about to expire Vanke HRP1 In the case of positive shares strengthening, it took the lead in rebounding last Monday, with a cumulative increase of 27.94% for the whole week, and the largest increase in warrants Baosteel JTB1 It is also an expiring variety. The approaching duration not only did not make these two varieties take the opportunity to fall back when the warrant plate rebounded, but stimulated their rapid rebound and magnified the risks that had not been released before. Therefore, although we thought that the warrant market should rebound significantly after the release of short-term risks, the warrant market is expected to return to rationality after this week after the collective and blind rise in the initial stage of the rebound, and some varieties with small bubbles, significant leverage effect and clear positive stock expectations are expected to receive renewed attention from the market.
Although the rebound last week was somewhat speculative, it was also accompanied by shares The biggest decline of the spot market in a single day, so the trend of the stock spot market this week will strongly affect the warrant plate, including the hot spot in the conversion between put warrants and call warrants, as well as the market's choice of investment and speculative varieties. It is worth noting that we have previously warned that the trading amount and turnover rate of the warrant sector hit a new low since the second quarter, but the changes in the warrant market last week attracted some funds back to the warrant trading. Some put warrants that have increased significantly have even hit new highs in trading value since their listing. This week, the warrant market will continue to be active, and it is necessary to be alert to avoid the varieties whose growth and trading activity are too alarming. In the short term, the divergence in the stock spot market is strengthening. When extreme pessimism and extreme optimism coexist, it is very easy to lead to differentiation and abnormal fluctuations in the warrant market. As the influence of the stock spot market on the trend of warrants has increased recently, it is suggested to focus on the varieties with clear underlying stock fundamentals and trend expectations when selecting warrant varieties in the near future. In case of unclear expectations of the stock spot market or the underlying stock, avoid the varieties with large short-term increases.
