GF Securities Product Innovation Department
Recently, the warrant market has been in hot spots for a long time, China Southern JTP1 There is no doubt that the end of the market is the focus of the recent market. On Wednesday and Thursday, the SFC2 of another doomsday warrant Shenzhen Stock Exchange was also once pulled up, and other warrants were also "clicked" one by one by hot money. The whole warrant market is hot, and some of the warrants that have been hot, such as Shenzhen High CWB1 and SAIC CWB1 The premium has reached an astonishing 170%, and the rise and fall of warrant prices are also erratic with the transfer of hot spots, which makes many investors unpredictable.
At present, the price of the warrant market is mainly formed by the relationship between supply and demand, which makes it difficult to avoid the impact of capital inflow and outflow on the price of the warrant. In addition, the T+0 trading mechanism may aggravate the volatility of the price, which makes it difficult to grasp the trend of the warrant. However, in the face of the "high fever" of warrants, investors should always remain rational. Warrants are popular in the market. It is not ruled out that it is due to the market's judgment of the trend of the positive shares. However, the market has always favored new warrants and warrants with absolute low prices, and investors cannot be unprepared for the risks involved. What deserves investors' careful treatment is the speculation of the out of price doomsday warrants. Taking China Southern Airlines JTP1 as an example, the price has returned steadily to around 30 cents a few days ago, After being hyped, the price soared to 1.35 yuan at the highest, more than 300% higher than the previous lowest price. Since then, the speed of the sharp decline of warrants has been even more amazing. On June 2, China Southern Airlines JTP1 closed down 5.43% from 56%, from 1.35 yuan at the highest to 0.734 yuan at the lowest. The amplitude of the day reached 71%. That is to say, if investors are unlucky to enter at the highest level and leave at the lowest level, Then the loss can reach 71% today. In the next trading day, China Southern Airlines will sell another city and drop another 27%, which is really a torrent of water. It can be seen that such a fierce off price doomsday market is fierce, and the trend is unstoppable and the risk is prominent. Perhaps some investors have the mentality of "gamble, make a profit and leave", but speculation about the end of the day out of price warrants is like a game of drumming and passing flowers. When speculation cools down and funds withdraw, who can guarantee that the person who takes over the high position is not himself? The consequence of blindly entering the arena is likely to cost nothing. Obviously, this kind of gambling mentality is not desirable. Rather than taking the risk of taking the risk of fire to invest in warrants, it is better to participate in warrants from the perspective of value investment, which is relatively safe and can win leverage returns.
In fact, investors do not need to follow the market hot spots too much to pursue warrants. Instead, they should do their homework properly and select warrants according to scientific investment thinking, and the return on investment can also be quite generous. For example, learn to identify the risk level and profitability of warrants from indicators. Investors who attach importance to security should select warrants with moderate premium and long residual duration, while investors who pursue leverage effect can appropriately allocate warrants with high actual leverage (note actual leverage rather than leverage ratio). However, more important than indicators is to judge the trend of positive shares, Because the price change of the positive shares is the most direct factor affecting the rise and fall of the warrant price, even the unpopular warrants can hardly resist the boost from the soaring positive shares. It can be seen that, rather than following the capital in and out of the warrants through gambling style adventure, it is better to make rational investment through the warrant indicators and judging the positive stock expectations, so as to avoid being confused and even suffering unnecessary losses in the "cold" and "hot" markets.
