Our reporter Pan Qing
China Southern Airlines put warrants that have attracted much attention and controversy in the market（ China Southern JTP1 ）, will complete its last day of trading on June 13 and expire on June 20. Similar to the previous multiple put warrants, China Southern Airlines also experienced "doomsday round" speculation.
Industry experts have suggested that China Southern Airlines warrants are out of the deep price, and the intrinsic value is inevitable to "return to zero". The risk of blind speculation is huge, and investors should not "play with fire".
China Southern Airlines Warrant: Encounter "Doomsday Ship"
On May 21, the warrant of China Southern Airlines, with only the last month's duration remaining, set the lowest price of 0.305 yuan except the first day of listing. Since then, the warrant of China Southern Airlines has suddenly encountered crazy speculation.
In the trading week beginning on May 26, the warrant of China Southern Airlines continued to rise, of which the increase reached 45.30% on May 30, and the daily amplitude exceeded 70%. According to the lowest price of 0.305 yuan on May 21 and the highest price of 1.35 yuan on May 30, the warrant of China Southern Airlines has risen nearly 3.5 times in just one week.
The change in trading volume also fully shows the excessive "enthusiasm" of speculative funds for China Southern Airlines warrants. During the seven trading days from May 23 to June 2, while the total volume of transactions in Shanghai Stock Exchange continued to shrink, the trading volume of China Southern Airlines warrants exceeded 10 billion yuan in four trading days. The trading volume on June 2 reached 15.6 billion yuan.
In order to warn investors of risks, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has taken measures to temporarily suspend the trading of China Southern Airlines' put warrants for many times in case of abnormal trading, and issued a notice on matters related to the cash settlement exercise of China Southern Airlines' put warrants. Southern airlines The Special Notice on the Last Trading Date and Maturity Date of China Southern Airlines JTP1 Put Warrants was also published repeatedly.
In this context, the "speculation" of China Southern Airlines warrants has cooled. On June 2, the warrant of China Southern Airlines quickly "dived" after hitting the recent highest price of 1.35 yuan, with a 5.43% drop on that day. On June 3, the warrant of China Southern Airlines continued to decline.
Speculation of "doomsday warrants" is no different from "playing with fire"
According to the closing price of China Southern Airlines' warrants and China Southern Airlines' regular shares on June 2, as well as the exercise price and exercise proportion, the intrinsic value of China Southern Airlines' warrants is definitely zero. Even if the price of regular shares of China Southern Airlines drops sharply in the next few trading days, it is almost impossible to make China Southern Airlines warrants enter the in price state.
There is no doubt that the warrant of China Southern Airlines has become a piece of "waste paper". Why did it encounter the wild speculation in the market? Market analysts believe that, on the one hand, as the only existing put warrant on the spot, China Southern Airlines' warrants still have the characteristics of "scarce resources", and the "T+0" trading mode makes it possible for speculators to repeatedly speculate with less funds.
On the other hand, from previous experience, there is often a wave of speculation about put warrants before expiration. Before that, Baosteel Warrants, Vanke Warrants, CMB Warrants, etc. have all experienced similar "doomsday rounds". This makes some investors who lack the necessary knowledge of warrants take a fluke mentality and hope to gain huge profits from it.
In addition, recently, a large number of securities companies repurchased and cancelled the China Southern Airlines warrants, which also raised the warrant price to a certain extent, and caused some investors to make wrong judgments and blindly follow up.
"In fact, after the 'doomsday round', the warrants have never been able to avoid a sharp decline and eventually 'return to zero', and many investors often suffer heavy losses as a result." Qiu Yanying, a strategic analyst at Shanghai Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., said that in this sense, speculation of "doomsday warrants" is nothing but a dangerous "play with fire".
Warrant investment: the threshold needs to be improved
During the period of the existence of China Southern Airlines warrants, securities companies have successively created a large number of similar warrants. Some market participants questioned this, and some investors who suffered losses in warrant investment even made an appeal for "extension".
The SSE denied the false report of some media about "the SSE studies the extension of China Southern Airlines warrants", and once again reminded investors of the maturity risk.
In fact, as a means for listed companies to pay consideration in the split share structure reform, warrants have rules that can be created at the beginning of their appearance. Professor Li Xindan of Nanjing University once wrote that the process of warrant creation is relatively transparent, and the creation system is not the root cause of some warrant investors' losses.
In the view of many experts, the main problem of warrant investment is that the "threshold" is too low.
"The lack of both professional knowledge and risk tolerance is the main reason why some investors, especially retail investors, have suffered losses in the warrant investment of China Southern Airlines." Qiu Yanying said that raising the investment "threshold" is the most direct way to reduce the risk of warrant investment without changing the existing rules.
A previous research report of Guotai Jun'an Securities Research Center also said that warrant products are generally low in absolute price and small in number of issues, so they are more vulnerable to speculative funds, and thus deviate from the true value. The risk of put warrants is huge, and small and medium-sized retail investors should not participate.
GF Securities listed some "bad habits" of warrant investment, including insisting on striving for more returns or getting back "lost" on the same warrant, trading frequently, and not paying attention to controlling the position of investment warrants.
GF Securities researchers said that most of the above "bad habits" are due to investors' immature investment mentality. Since the price fluctuation of warrants is greater than that of stocks, and they may become "waste paper" when they expire, investors should be vigilant and change these "bad habits" of investment, so that they will not make the same mistakes when investing in the future.
