citic securities Yan Gaojian Li Hao

In the early warrant market as a whole, the subscription was underestimated, while the put was seriously overestimated. The recent warrant market trend is closely linked with the corresponding positive stock trend, and the market price returns to rationality. This is mainly caused by three reasons: on the one hand, Yili CWB1 and Qiaocheng HQC1 in the warrant are about to expire, while Steel Vanadium GFC1 and Ma Steel CWB1 will also usher in their first exercise date; The approaching of the maturity date and the exercise date forced the negative premium rate of the warrant to recover. Secondly, the strengthening of market supervision effectively curbed the speculation of speculative funds on put warrants. Third, the only place in the market that can create China Southern Airlines put warrants was created by a large number of people, and the market was created China Southern JTP1 The total number of put warrants exceeded 11.5 billion, nearly 10 times the initial issuance, effectively reducing the overall overvaluation of put warrants.

For put warrants, our view is still to avoid. In the context of bull market, the probability of the maturity value of put warrants returning to zero is extremely high, and CMB CMP1 is a lesson from the past. Under the influence of Shenzhen Stock Exchange policies, put warrants fell across the board last week, with a decline of more than 10%. However, the theoretical value of put warrants is still close to zero, and the market price/theoretical value is more than 1000 times except for China Southern Airlines JTP.

As the only put variety that can be created in the market, China Southern Airlines JTP1 has been created by securities companies with a total number of 11.7 billion, making the total number of China Southern Airlines JTP1 nearly 12 billion. At the same time, the market price/theoretical value of China Southern Airlines JTP1 is 169.03, which is still possible to be further created. Such a large share capital and the potential risk of being continuously created make speculative funds lose interest.

If investors want to participate in the speculative trading of put warrants, they must control their positions well and carry out strict risk control, so as not to suffer large losses due to small rebound.

follow Wuliang YGC1

At present, Wuliang YGC1 is the only warrant with high discount, high leverage and large future growth space for equity in the two markets. Investors are suggested to pay attention to Wuliang YGC1. Researchers in the food and beverage industry of CITIC Securities maintain the buy rating of the stock, and the target price is 60 yuan. Considering the exercise ratio of warrants is 1:1.4020, and the latest exercise price of 4.898, the corresponding warrants should be 79.222 yuan. The current price of Wuliang YGC1 is only 37.26 yuan. Even if the current price of regular shares is 37.26 yuan, Wuliang YGC1 still has a premium of - 13.44%.

The effective leverage of Wuliang YGC1 is 2.02, so the purchase of warrants can obtain higher leverage returns.