Ping An Securities Derivatives Department Zhang Junjie
In November, there will be two call warrants and one put warrant delisting in the domestic warrant market. Among them, Yili CWB1 will close the transaction after November 7; OCT HQC1 and CIMC ZYP1 The last trading day of is November 16. The remaining tradable days of the three warrants are not many. So, how should investors judge the investment value and seize the investment opportunities of warrants that are nearing maturity?
For warrants in deep price, investors should focus on the premium rate index of warrants in addition to judging the short-term trend of positive shares. The premium rate represents the ultimate risk of the warrants held by investors, which is particularly important for warrants approaching maturity. Usually, when the warrant expires, its market price will converge to the intrinsic value, at which time the premium rate of the warrant is about zero. Investors should try to avoid warrants with high premium rate. Because the premium rate is too high, investors are less likely to guarantee their principal at maturity. Even if they accurately judge the short-term trend of the positive shares, they may also face the situation of not making money or even losing money. For warrants with a low premium rate, investors can judge and operate according to the trend of the positive shares. Taking Yili CWB1 as an example, the premium rate of the warrant yesterday was -1.40%. As the warrant is nearing its expiration, the premium rate will tend to zero. Therefore, if investors are optimistic about the trend of Yili shares in the period before the expiration of the warrant, they can consider buying Yili CWB1.
For warrants near parity, risks and opportunities coexist to a large extent. As the warrants are nearing maturity, there is a certain possibility that the warrants will be in or out of the price at maturity. Once the warrant expires and is out of the price, the warrant will be worthless; However, if the price of positive shares changes significantly in a favorable direction, the value of warrants may multiply, bringing considerable gains to investors. Therefore, it is crucial to judge the short-term trend of positive shares at this time. Since investors may lose all invested capital if they misread the direction, investors must control their positions when investing in such warrants.
For warrants outside the deep price, the possibility of exercise at maturity is extremely low. Therefore, when the maturity is approaching, such warrants do not have investment value, and their market price is highly likely to eventually return to zero. In mature overseas markets, if warrants are near maturity and outside the deep price, their market prices are usually very low. Due to the influence of speculation and other factors, the market price of some warrants in China's warrant market is relatively high near the maturity, such as CIMC ZYP1. There are only 15 trading days left, and the market price is still around 1.5 yuan. Such warrants are very risky, so investors should stay away from them.
In a word, for warrants approaching maturity, investors should operate according to their own risk tolerance, based on the judgment of the trend of the positive shares and the degree of the warrants both inside and outside the price. For warrants at par, risk control should be the main focus. For warrants beyond the deep price, it is better not to participate. In addition, investors should also be reminded that if they hold in price warrants to the exercise period, they must not forget to exercise.
