The enthusiasm for speculation is gradually cooling, and the market trend is differentiated
--Warrant Weekly Report (August 4 – August 10, 2007)
Guotai Jun'an Zhang Han
Introduction to this report:
Summary:
Last week, driven by the rise of the steel sector, Vanadium Steel GFC1 rose 15.33%, Magang rose 7.85%, Sinochem CWB1 rose 8.02% driven by the positive shares, but the increase of the subscription certificate was less than that of the positive shares, with an average weekly increase of 2.45%, and the corresponding weekly average increase of the positive shares was 5.46%. CMB CMP1 As the exercise period approaches, the value begins to return. Last week, it dropped 58.75%. The average decline of put warrants this week was 11.24%, and the corresponding weekly average increase of positive shares was 8.77%.
All sales and purchases have shrunk. The total turnover of warrants last week was 182.815 billion yuan, down 18.29% from the previous week. The turnover of warrants rose from 50.42% of the previous week to 56.86% of the previous week. The speculative enthusiasm of the warrant market is cooling.
Last week, the market continued to rise, but on Friday, the market was suspicious of the macro aspect, and there was a slight decline. On Friday, the global market fell sharply due to the subprime mortgage problem. The European and American central banks poured capital into the market to rescue the market. Today, the statistics bureau announced that the CPI in July rose 5.6% year on year. The future market mainly focused on the impact of the international market on the domestic market, And the tightening degree of the moderately tight monetary policy in the second half of the year. For subscription certificates, we continue to be optimistic about steel subscription certificates and other blue chip products, such as Steel Vanadium GFC1, Wuliang YGC1 and OCT HQC1. Guodian JTB1 is about to expire, and the premium rate is around - 3.22%, so investors are advised to avoid it temporarily. The risk of put warrants is still very high. CMB CMP1 fell by more than half a week, reminding investors not to participate in the speculation of the doomsday round.
1. Warrant market analysis last week
Last week, the market continued its upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 4600.12 and closed at 4749.37, up to 4769.72, with a weekly increase of 4.14%. Last week's trading volume maintained an upward trend. A shares in the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded a total of 784.888 billion yuan last week, up 0.79% from the previous week.
Last week, driven by the rise of the steel sector, Vanadium Steel GFC1 rose 15.33%, Magang rose 7.85%, Sinochem CWB1 rose 8.02% driven by the positive shares, but the increase of the subscription certificate was less than that of the positive shares, with an average weekly increase of 2.45%, and the corresponding weekly average increase of the positive shares was 5.46%. The exercise period of CMB CMP1 is approaching, and the value begins to return. Last week, it dropped 58.75%, the average decline of put warrants this week was 11.24%, and the average weekly increase of corresponding positive shares was 8.77%.
All sales and purchases have shrunk. The total turnover of warrants last week was 182.815 billion yuan, down 18.29% from the previous week. The turnover of warrants rose from 50.42% of the previous week to 56.86% of the previous week. The speculative enthusiasm of the warrant market is cooling.
The turnover rate curve moved down as a whole. Except for the rising turnover rate of Vanadium Steel GFC1, Masteel CWB1 and Sinochem CWB1, the rest of the turnover rate declined to varying degrees, of which the turnover rate of Cloudchem CWB1 shrank by nearly 2/3. From the following premium rate chart, it can be seen that more than half of the warrants with negative premium have reached six. The overall premium rate of call warrants fell again to 1.76% from 5.49% last week, and the premium rate of put warrants was the same as that of the previous week, with an average premium rate of 83.61%.
2. Investment strategy this week
Last week, the market continued to rise, but on Friday, the market was suspicious of the macro aspect, and there was a slight decline. On Friday, the global market fell sharply due to the subprime mortgage problem. The European and American central banks poured capital into the market to rescue the market. Today, the statistics bureau announced that the CPI in July rose 5.6% year on year. The future market mainly focused on the impact of the international market on the domestic market, And the tightening degree of the moderately tight monetary policy in the second half of the year.
For subscription certificates, we continue to be optimistic about steel subscription certificates and other blue chip products, such as Steel Vanadium GFC1 Wuliang YGC1 And OCT HQC1. Guodian JTB1 It is about to expire, and the premium rate is about - 3.22%, so investors are advised to avoid it temporarily.
The risk of put warrants is still very high. CMB CMP1 fell by more than half a week, reminding investors not to participate in the speculation of the doomsday round.
