Our reporter Ke Zhixiong reports from Beijing
Xiaoke (not her real name), a 24-year-old girl, stared at the computer. She had a premonition that she might be in trouble.
A few days ago, my father went back to his hometown to visit relatives and asked her to help him keep an eye on stocks. On impulse, she bought 2/3 of the entire account at the price of 2.7 yuan CMB CMP1 ——In the next few days, she never saw such a price again.
She asked for help on different warrant forums - in these forums, the call warrants were called "dogs", and the put warrants she bought were called "aunts", but no one could save her.
On July 6, she told the reporter that her "aunt" had caused her heavy losses: "If she cut meat yesterday, half of the 100000 yuan was lost. If she stayed until today, even 30000 yuan could not be kept." On July 5, CMB CMP1 closed at 1049 yuan, with a turnover of 11.633 billion yuan. On that day, A-shares of the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded 75.648 billion yuan, but the warrants of the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded nearly 25.873 billion yuan, equivalent to one third of the former.
This is an unthinkable proportion even a few months ago.
In this hot summer capital market All eyes were attracted by the "power king" battle staged in the East - the total transaction amount of warrants in the mainland of China exceeded the total amount of last year in the first half of this year in just five months, reaching $221.159 billion, surpassing the $135.162 billion in Hong Kong in the same period, and easily ranked the "power king" in the world warrant trading amount ranking list.
Hong Kong, with 2735 warrants, recorded a total turnover of HK $1356 billion in derivative warrants in the first half of the year. The mainland of China, with more than 10 warrants, has left the former far behind.
One for 900
According to the statistics made by our reporter according to the public data of the Exchange, the 14 warrants existing at the end of June had a transaction amount of 2882.641 billion yuan in the first six months of this year, while compared with the Hong Kong warrant transaction amount of 135.6 trillion yuan in the same period, the latter was only 45.63% of the former. If we take into account the trading amount of nearly 600 billion yuan in the first five months of this year for more than 10 warrants written off by the mainland before June, the trading amount of Hong Kong's warrants is only one third of that of the mainland.
In other words, the transaction amount of 2735 warrants in Hong Kong is only equivalent to the total transaction amount of three most frequently traded warrants in the mainland, namely CMB CMP1, Magang CWB1 and Steel Vanadium GFC1. On the contrary, each of the three warrants in the mainland is equal to the 900 warrants in Hong Kong on average.
The turbulent June is the key time for mainland China to win the world's "power king".
In June 2007, the turnover of 14 warrants in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges that had lasted until the end of the month was close to 1819.419 billion yuan, compared with last year's full year warrant trading, which was only 1.99 trillion yuan, equivalent to 90% of last year's full year's trading in June this year.
Only a year ago, few people could imagine that warrants would become so popular.
According to the statistics of Shanghai Stock Exchange Information Network Co., Ltd., in May 2006, there were only 36.766 million people qualified for warrant trading, of which only one in every 25 people had done warrants. At that time, the accounts involved in warrant trading were considered to be large if their daily average trading was more than 500000 yuan.
A year later, by May this year, the number of people who had conducted warrant transactions had more than doubled. While the total number of retail investors increased, the proportion of retail investors decreased from nearly 50% to 40%, which means that some of them have significantly expanded the average daily trading volume of less than 10000 yuan, becoming small and medium-sized businesses with average daily trading value of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan.
The shock of June came at just the right time. The immediate trigger is the stock market crash caused by the increase of stamp duty. In May, when the stock market was "crazy", only 5 of the 18 trading days of the whole month in the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded slightly less than 200 billion yuan. In June, when the "5.30 slump" took place, the average daily turnover shrank to 170 billion yuan in 21 trading days; By the first four trading days in July, the daily turnover further dropped to 82 billion yuan, and so far there is no sign of stopping shrinking. Exactly shares The expectation of transaction shrinkage triggered the warrant frenzy in June.
Change of revenue game
In fact, Zhou Luohua, a professor of finance at Shanghai University, foresaw how things would change when the stock transactions in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 200 billion yuan.
In Zhou's view, the stock markets of all countries in the world have experienced three stages from development to maturity: "from earning the positive stock increase, to earning the positive stock increase difference, and finally to earning the increase fluctuation difference". "This is the way the world's stock markets have gone, and China's stock markets are no exception," he said.
Zhou Luohua believes that in the first stage of positive stock long short trading, the rule of gain is to hold shares until they rise. When all stocks have been fully exploited, the stock market has given listed companies at least reasonable pricing, and the original operation can not bring benefits to investors; In the hedging stage of positive shares, investors need to hedge against stocks that have been fully valued. For example, you think that Baosteel is more competitive than WISCO, but you can't determine whether the current prices of the two are underestimated. In this way, you can choose to short WISCO and long Baosteel to form a hedge. You can make money no matter whether the stock market rises or falls; In the third stage of the stock market, it may appear that Baosteel and WISCO are expected to increase by the same amount, and there is no possibility of hedging the positive shares. However, if you predict that the stock price of Baosteel will fluctuate significantly, and WISCO will remain stable, you can short WISCO's warrants and long Baosteel's warrants, even if the stock prices of Baosteel and WISCO have the same increase or decrease on the expiration date, You can still earn stock volatility differences.
"Labyrinth" and "Jianghu"
After the craziness in June, the warrant battle field has been divided into "maze faction" and "Jianghu faction". The former generally operate institutional accounts, and some even serve primary warrant dealers. They are familiar with the difference between butterfly warrants and Bermuda warrants, can easily distinguish European style and American style put warrants, and can even calculate the extended volatility with their own hands; The latter, from small to large, likes to call high position buying warrants "high position walking dogs" based on various websites and forums, and is used to managing their own purchases of potash fertilizer, China Southern Airlines and China Merchants Bank as "Feigu", "Nangu" and "Qigu" based on the name or code end of the warrants.
In peacetime before that, when the shocks were not severe, primary dealers often needed to provide liquidity for transactions, and the "labyrinth faction" did not make much progress. According to the research report of the Innovation Laboratory of the Trading Management Department of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in November 2006, the primary dealers who have completed the exercise of warrants mainly rely on the creation to obtain tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of yuan of income from each warrant, while the market making profits often lose tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of yuan. Among the outstanding warrants by the end of August last year, the primary dealers include Guotai Jun'an and citic securities In addition to obtaining more than 910000 yuan and 170000 yuan respectively, most of the others will bear market making losses of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan.
June 2007 may have become a turning point. Some private equity funds and large investors believe that the turbulent June has given "Labyrinth School" an excellent opportunity to benefit from market making. In this month, warrants with an amplitude of 40% - 89% were considered mild, while put warrants such as CMB and CIMC had an amplitude of 320% - 850%. Millions of accounts under large accounts were attracted to enter this battlefield, with many scars.
"At most, we just lift the sedan chair", said a private equity fund manager surnamed Song: "Unlimited creation has given primary dealers great space, and T+0 has magnified the impact of their control of capital."
On July 6, CMB CMP1 CIMC ZYP1 And Valin JTP1 Unfavorable, it fell by 62% - 73% from the highest point 10 trading days ago - the biggest change of hands was the greater the amplitude, and it was the last one that suffered the most.
"Who can distribute at a high position with foresight? Who can create a turnover rate of hundreds of percent every day?" asked Su Zhengkang, an old shareholder who has operated the first warrant since then.
However, the conclusion of the above innovation laboratory report is obviously inconsistent with Su's view that "the more active the primary dealers are, the more stable the intraday price will be", However, the report also suggested that "the quotation information of the primary dealers should be disclosed separately in the market to guide investors' reasonable price expectations... The participation of the primary dealers should be regularly evaluated and assessed, and announced to the market to form an incentive role for the primary dealers".
