Last Friday, after the Shanghai Stock Index hit a low of 3563 points, it rebounded sharply under the stimulus of good news, rising by 165.48 points, triggering a collective rise in subscription warrants, of which Guodian JTB1 With 14.55% of the increase in the stock market, Qiaocheng HQC1 Wuliang YGC1 They rose by 8.26% and 5.338% respectively. Except for the two warrants of Shenzhen Development, all the other call warrants rose by more than 4%, while the put warrants fell by more than 15%.
Although the Shanghai index fell by more than 1% last week, the put certificate did not cause a seesaw effect due to the decline of the market, and the average weekly decline was as high as 39.97%! among CIMC ZYP1 、 CMB CMP1 and Valin JTP1 The weekly decline was more than 40%. This shows that the upsurge of speculation in the early stage of the put certificate has shifted from the stage of making money effect to the stage of losing money effect, and the put certificate without investment value is moving towards value regression.
Therefore, although in the process of market volatility, the main capital in the crouching put warrants will certainly flip the warrants up and down, which seems to constantly provide investors with opportunities to make money, investors must understand that this is just bait, in order to invite people to enter the urn, so investors must pay special attention not to grab the put warrants for intraday rebound. In particular, CMB CMP1, although its absolute price has dropped from the historical high of 4.949 yuan on June 12 to 0.805 yuan at the close of last Friday, the decline is not small, but it is less than two months before the end of the duration, and the risk of losing money "inadvertently" buying is great.
From the perspective of capital flow, the transaction amount of the warrant market last week was 327.39 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 36.6% compared with the previous week, especially the transaction amount of the put warrant decreased by more than 40%, which reflected that the capital was constantly set aside for the put warrant, so the sharp decline of the put warrant in the short term was inevitable.
It is worth noting that most of the subscription certificates fell more than the regular shares last week. For example, Sinochem CWB1 still fell 8.89% when the regular shares rose 1.06% weekly. Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. CWB1 fell 7.81%, while the weekly decline was 0.15%, and Yunhua CWB1 ranked first with a weekly decline of - 11.78%.
The decline of subscription certificates greatly exceeded that of regular shares, leading to a sharp drop in their premium rate, which gave birth to more investment opportunities. Therefore, investors who are optimistic about the future market of regular shares can pay close attention to the subscription certificates with low premium, such as the Steel Subscription Certificate, OCT HQC1, Wuliang YGC1, etc., while the SFC1 and SFC2 of Shenzhen Development Bank with high premium are mainly wait-and-see.
Zhang Biao's Daily Economic News
