Today, SDB warrants will be listed for trading, and many speculators around are sharpening their swords and preparing to buy goods directly up and down. However, compared with the put warrants that can be hyped, how should SDB equity warrants, as a function of warrants, be priced?
According to the exercise price of 30.14 yuan and 19 yuan of the closing price of SDB yesterday, if the duration of the warrant is not considered, the price of the warrant should be 12 yuan. In practice, the pricing of 12 yuan is often of little reference significance, which is simply mentioned here.
An algorithm with more reference value is to use the share price of SDB before the suspension of trading - 35.2 yuan. According to the average transaction price of SDB yesterday of 31 yuan, the difference of 4.2 yuan can be considered as the ex right effect after investors get the warrants. In other words, investors who once held Shenzhen Development shares and obtained warrants received one 6-month warrant and 0.5 12-month warrant for every 10 shares, and lost 42 yuan of stock market value. Therefore, the holding cost of one 6-month warrant and 0.5 12-month warrant is 42 yuan.
Since the warrant with a 12-month duration is of higher theoretical value than the warrant with a 6-month duration, we might as well split a 6-month warrant at a cost of 25 yuan and a 12-month warrant at a cost of 34 yuan, which just makes up for the loss of the investor's market value of 42 yuan.
According to this method, it is very likely that the two warrants will rise or fall when they are opened, and there will be opportunities for continuous rises or falls. Therefore, if you can buy SDB warrants on the first day, there should be no small profit space.
Of course, there is not much premium space for the value of warrants in the current market, which is mainly due to the high price of warrants and poor speculation. The SDB warrants are highly speculative at the beginning of listing, which should be able to get rid of the strange circle that warrants are not easy to speculate. Perhaps SDB warrants can also drive the whole warrants sector to become stronger.
Therefore, radical investors may wish to follow up SDB warrants in the call auction with the ceiling. Although it is possible to be locked up, at least the holding cost is lower than the original allocation. From a mathematical point of view, the value proposition rate is quite high. On the contrary, there will be no investment loss even if it cannot be bought. In addition, if the situation is wrong, stop loss and exit immediately. Don't forget that the warrant is a T+0 trading system.
Zhou Kejing
