The Doomsday Round of Put Warrants: The Game of Cheating for the Rich

Morning Post reporter Sun Xiaoxu

In the warrant market, the warrants within 2 months from the final exercise period are usually called the "doomsday round". Among them, the warrants with low absolute prices can often attract huge investment speculation, resulting in sharp turnover and volatility in the final trading period. Recently soaring Potash fertilizer JTP1 Undoubtedly, it belongs to this category.

Some people call it the gold panning pool, the champion of the top experts in the securities market, but others point out that this is a high-risk game with private equity and large investors who are keen on speculation as the main crowd, and rich people set up scams between each other.

　　 Many large families were eliminated

On May 30, it fell sharply to the close of yesterday, and Potash JTP1 closed up 481%, CMB CMP1 The increase was as high as 787%. For this reason, some people are shocked. However, it is not difficult to understand the rare intersection of the four points on May 30, namely, the vacuum period of put warrants, the extreme shortage of short financial instruments in A-shares, the sudden collapse of the stock index, and the absence of stamp duty on warrant transactions.

According to senior people, there are a number of people in the market who specialize in warrants. This market is a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" for them.

"The participants in this game are basically private equity and self identified high tech players." An analyst who has studied warrants for a long time said that they are very decisive once they see the opportunity. "They have created the market and are very clear about when they can rise, or when they want it to rise."

In the process of hype, the price of the subject matter of the transaction is constantly raised, and the cost of each person is also constantly accumulating. Finally, it depends on who can take the lead. This "high" is not about gains or losses, not about the sooner or later of withdrawal, but about how much you have earned, and it is about the precise timing of withdrawal.

"Only when others don't want to play, or are about to throw their chips to you, can they first step to induce them to take your chips, and then they can earn the biggest profit in this round of market. Generally speaking, many large individuals will eventually be 'eaten'." A private equity manager said that, usually in the warrant speculation, the "fight" on the market will be quite fierce, Various false appearances are complicated.

"Recently, the trading volume of warrants has reached 100 billion yuan, of which there is a large amount of water. A considerable part of the trading volume and the active situation of the whole market are made by the controller using multiple accounts to buy and sell warrants with the help of T+0 and stamp duty free features." He said.

For some people who are confident that they can see the clues, they may be able to follow the hype of funds to make a small profit, and even some people may encounter good luck. But more people can only play the role of being cheated and become the "bone of the city" of successful generals. Because, once all the speculation capital exits, those expired warrants that have lost their value are likely to become a piece of waste paper. "You may make profits in trading by speculating such warrants, but the biggest possibility is to lose money, or even lose money. This is not

　　 Creating "One Capital, Ten Thousand Profits" for Securities Firms

　　 It is worth noting that most analysts have pointed out that due to the small size of warrants, large capital speculation is easy to expose identity, and gambling is extremely high, including proprietary funds and funds of securities firms will not participate. However, it is undeniable that in this round of speculation on put warrants, many securities companies have made a lot of profits by creating new warrants for the purpose of stabilizing prices.

According to the provisions of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges on the creation of warrants, when creating put warrants, securities firms only need to deposit a sum of money in a special account as collateral according to the exercise price of the warrants and the number of shares created, and can create or cancel them with the consent of the Exchange. It can be listed and traded within T+2 days after the establishment is approved.

"For put warrants, what the securities companies need to do is to sell the newly created warrants when the price of the warrants is high. Then, after the whole speculation is over, when the price of the warrants drops sharply, they can buy these warrants, and then apply for cancellation, and then take back the mortgage funds. The only thing that needs to be paid is not high creation costs." An analyst said, Although there are some risks in this, the put warrants that have been greatly hyped up at present are obviously of little value and will inevitably become waste paper.

"In this case, securities companies can say that they can make huge profits with one capital." Some research institutions pointed out that, taking CMB CMP1 as an example, the cumulative increase of the right securities from May 30 to yesterday's closing was 789%. During this period, 10 securities firms created a total of 365 million CMB CMP1. Since the exercise price of CMB CMP1 is 5.48 yuan, the current share price of CMB is about 21 yuan, and CMB CMP1 is almost impossible to exercise. Securities companies only need to buy back and write off at a minimum cost on the due date. After deducting other creation costs, it is conservatively estimated that the profits of the above securities companies may exceed 200 million yuan.