Author: Wang Lei/Wen

The high-profile "milk warrant" was listed today, and the positive shares have fallen for five consecutive days, exceeding investors' psychological expectations for the decline after ex rights. Today, the listing of warrants is bound to have a good show, and its positive share price and warrant valuation need more careful analysis, which is a concern of many investors.

　　 Whether disguised financing can be successfully completed

Recently, Yili Shares The "bungee jumping" trend has made many insiders sigh for it. The reason is that many investors believe that Yili Warrants contain "huge profit opportunities" and are driven by interests. However, whether Yili Warrant can bring huge profits is still open to question.

In theory, one of the purposes of issuing warrants by enterprises is to raise funds to invest in projects in the future. Yili shares also have the same purpose, but only in the way of "borrowing before returning". (Yili Shares announced that before the raised funds are in place, the funds needed for the investment project will be solved by the company in the form of bank loans.) Whether Yili Shares can successfully exercise its rights in one year will be the key to the problem.

Industry experts said that from the past warrant exercise situation, few could successfully exercise, which was mainly because the price and value of the warrant had seriously deviated under the speculation of some investment funds. Therefore, in the final exercise process, the meaning of its exercise was lost. Because the exercise of rights can not bring relative profits, but it is better to buy the underlying stock directly in the stock market, which will make the original financing plan of the enterprise fail. The recently delisted Baosteel Warrant is an example.

According to the announcement of Yili Shares, only 111274652 warrants distributed to 370915506 tradable shares without limited selling conditions can be listed and circulated.

This part of warrants may not be able to be fully exercised. If most of the warrants cannot be exercised on time, the resulting funding gap will be considerable, which will have a certain impact on the original project promotion.

　　 Fund divergence begins to increase

According to the third quarterly report of Yili Shares, some institutions have disappeared from the top ten shareholders of tradable shares of the company, such as the National Social Security Fund 104 portfolio, the National Social Security Fund 102 portfolio, etc; Bosera Value Growth Fund, which has long been ranked as the largest shareholder of circulating shares of the company, has also significantly reduced its position to become the fifth largest shareholder of circulating shares. The former top three CITIC Classic Allocation Fund is no longer in the top ten.

On the contrary, some institutions have increased their positions on a large scale. Ping An Life held 10.59 million shares of the company, becoming the largest shareholder of tradable shares, while Yinfeng Securities Investment Fund and China Life Insurance (group) companies - traditional - ordinary insurance products have also entered Yili's top ten outstanding shareholders, holding 7809700 shares and 6025500 shares respectively.

The large change of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares shows that the Fund has serious differences in the evaluation of the future value of Yili Shares. These differences are mainly due to the inability of Yili Shares to achieve substantial and sustained growth in performance. If Yili cannot increase the performance growth rate by 18%, the share price of 18 yuan may not be effectively supported.

　　 Investors who grab warrants have lost money

"The investors who bought the warrants on November 8, the registration date of warrant distribution, have been hedged", a fund manager told reporters that, based on the closing price of 23.27 yuan of Yili shares on that day, the share price has dropped to 18.23 yuan after four trading days of decline. Based on yesterday's closing price, the listing value of the warrants is 10.23 yuan. If the above basic figures are taken as the unit of calculation, 23.27-10.23 × 0.3-18.23=1.971 (yuan), it can be inferred that the investors who bought Yili shares at 23.27 yuan have been covered.

The manager believes that it is still impossible to rule out the possibility that the main funds know the distribution information in advance and use this advantage to speculate and arbitrage in the A-share market. As can be seen from the trend chart of Yili Shares, large-scale funds entered the market two days before the news was announced. After the resumption, Yili's share price was increased by more than 15%. Although there is an occasional possibility, such a chance is very small.