-Zhang Wei
The call warrants of Baosteel and put warrants of Vanke came to an end successively, giving domestic investors the first taste of the bitter taste of the warrant game of "Bo Sha". Will the warrant become a piece of waste paper? Vanke put warrant holders have no doubt about this, and the final closing price explains everything.
Looking back on the short trading history of the two warrants, both had unimaginable glory. Baosteel warrants jumped up and down after listing, attracting a group of "Bo silly" players with its roller coaster like trend. The market price of Baosteel warrants soared from about 0.68 yuan to 2.11 yuan in late October last year, which made people dumbfounded in the dull stock market at that time. Since its inception, market participants have warned that steel warrants may become a piece of waste paper. But in the abnormal market mentality, who cares about the cruelty at the end of the warrant. On the last trading day, Baosteel's call warrants closed at 0.022 yuan and G Baosteel closed at 4.17 yuan. Since the exercise date of Baosteel warrant is August 30 and the exercise price is 4.20 yuan, in theory, as long as G Baosteel can increase the price by more than 4.20 yuan on the exercise date, Baosteel warrant will not become waste paper. However, for the price range above 1.30 yuan, where Baosteel warrants are more closely traded, if the holders have not yet sold, the losses are quite staggering.
As for Vanke put warrants, the exercise price was 3.638 yuan, and the closing price of G Vanke on August 28 was 6.79 yuan. For put warrants, the price of the underlying shares is 87% higher than the exercise price of the warrants. There is no possibility of exercise, which means the value is completely zero. The last trading day before the closing of Baosteel call warrants and Vanke put warrants fell 85.78% and 95% respectively, indicating that no matter how hyped the warrants are, they will inevitably return to value.
Who is the winner of the warrant "Bo Sha" game?
Baosteel warrants have survived for 243 trading days, with a total transaction amount of 178.8337 billion yuan. Calculated at an average transaction commission of 0.25%, Baosteel warrants have contributed about 400 million yuan to the brokerage business department in total. With such risk-free profits, how can securities companies not rise from the dead? On the other hand, the market value of warrant investment participants has shrunk by about 600 million yuan based on the average transaction price of 1.6 yuan on the first trading day when the turnover rate exceeded 100% and the closing price of 0.031 yuan on the last trading day. In other words, about 1 billion yuan of Baosteel warrant participants was lost. Those investors who have lost money may wonder why G Baosteel's performance is so poor after the bull market has lasted for a long time? Even the exercise price that can be exceeded without a sharp rise is difficult to climb. But the reality is so cruel. G Baosteel's performance in the first quarter fell 55.36% macro-control How to expect steel stocks in the background?
Some people believe that the warrant "Bo Silly" belongs to Zhou Yu, who is willing to fight and suffer. Even if the design of the warrant issuer is completely not for the sake of the holder, the "round disaster" is also the holder's own fault. Others believe that the warrant performance is Tian Ji's horse racing. According to the "expert", "Tian Ji's inferior horse appeared in the warrant battle, and Vanke shares In the battle of "Vanke", Tian Ji's medium horse appeared, which attracted 70 million investors. " The "expert" also boldly speculated that "the main force of the speculation of Vanke warrants is the main organization holding Vanke shares." If this analysis is true, Handan Steel's warrant is a high-level Tianji horse racing game. On the 28th, the closing prices of Handan Steel's warrant and G Handan Steel's warrant were 1.431 yuan and 3.58 yuan respectively. The exercise price of 2.73 yuan shows that they have not become a piece of waste paper. Tian Ji lost thousands of taels of gold to the king of Qi at the horse race. The warrant may also make the holder lose "confused".
It is reported that there are not many investors who have lost their money in warrant speculation. It is reported that a large family bought 200000 Baosteel warrants on May 31 at a price of 1.95 yuan. Due to the strong bull market atmosphere, Handan Iron and Steel's warrants continued to rise sharply, so they thought they had a chance to unwind Baosteel warrants and did not sell them. Later, they were reluctant to sell them because they lost too much. They sold them at 0.28 yuan per share on August 21, when they really had no hope of turning over, and the market value shrank from nearly 400000 yuan to more than 50000 yuan, The proportion of losses reached 86%. Alas, large investors can afford to lose, while retail investors "Bo Sha" lose the savings saved in their teeth.
Participation warrants can also enable institutions to achieve another purpose. Strategic investors acquire the equity of a listed company by holding the warrant of a listed company and finally exercising the right to the major shareholder, so as to avoid the embarrassment of high acquisition costs caused by the soaring stock prices caused by purchasing a large number of circulating shares in the secondary market.
On the last trading day, Baosteel's call warrants and Vanke's put warrants sold 786 million yuan and 97.99 million yuan respectively, reminding the busy outsiders not to be too bad at understanding and mistaking Zhou Yu for a real show. Institutional investors are definitely not stupid and will not lose money "dead shoulder" warrants. The warrant transaction is T+0, and the turnover rate is bound to be distorted. The best way for small and medium-sized investors to brighten their eyes is to give up participation. The wasteful ending of Baosteel's call warrants and Vanke's put warrants warned small and medium-sized investors not to become the worst losers due to their hot heads.
