Sunrise in the east and Yugang warrants in the west of the doomsday round are brewing a major counterattack

Zhang Yaliang (Niu Ben)

On Wednesday, after the market continued to surge, there was a slight adjustment in the tail market. This should be very normal for the market which opened low and went high for two days on Monday due to the sudden probe of the bad news of interest rate increase.

There is no doubt that the focus of the market on that day is to focus on warrants again. August 23 is the last trading day of Baosteel warrants. In early trading, as its regular stock G Baosteel once rose to 4.21 yuan, Baosteel's warrant rose to 0.244 yuan, up 12%. However, after nearly two hours of sideways trading, he began to show his killing face at the closing of the morning, and with the opening of the afternoon, there was a dive. In particular, at the last quarter of the market, the stock price plummeted by 75%, and finally exited the stage of history at a price close to zero of 0.031 yuan. And the turnover rate has also reached an astonishing 1165%. At the same time, another doomsday round Vanke Warrant fell to the lowest of 0.027 yuan in the afternoon, and then rose 55.56% in the last 40 minutes, which was still 20% higher than the previous day.

The sharp differentiation of the two doomsday rounds not only shows that if the warrants are worthless, when their final doomsday comes, they will still expose their "naked swimming bodies" to highlight the risks; It also shows the importance of time value for warrants. Although everyone knows that Vanke warrants will be waste paper one by 15:00 next Monday, as long as it has three trading days left, the current 0.042 yuan (higher than the 0.031 yuan of the final suspension of Baosteel warrants). G Baosteel closed on Wednesday at 4.17 yuan, and if its share price exceeded 4.23 yuan on August 30, its warrants would still be worth 0.031 yuan; For strategic investors who want to acquire Baosteel, perhaps the value of Baosteel warrants is even greater. In fact, Baosteel's warrants did not go through the crazy speculation of the doomsday round on August 14 and 16, with the increase of more than 50% in two days. Therefore, judging from the crazy performance of the two doomsday rounds before exiting the stage of history, the entire warrant plate will repeat this scene of profiteering game repeatedly in the plate.

I wonder if you have noticed a phenomenon? That is, in the last week, although Baoquan and Wanquan continued to break down, none of the warrants, whether subscribed or put, were dragged down to a new low. On the contrary, the trend of steel warrants represented by Baotou Steel's warrants was more positive than ever. By this Wednesday alone, Baoquan had risen 11.24%, Wuquan had risen 7.18%, and Hanquan had risen 5.62%. Among them, Handan Iron and Steel Warrants reached a low point of 1.10 yuan on August 4, with the largest increase up to 34% so far.

The trend of the Steel Warrants against the Baosteel Warrants not only indicates that the whole warrant sector, especially these steel warrants, has fallen from the previous high (the largest decline of the Handan Steel Warrants is 70%, the largest decline of the WISCO Warrants is 64.64%, and the largest decline of the Baotou Steel Warrants is 60%). In addition to the strong rebound naturally brewing from the technology itself; It also shows that for the entire steel sector, due to the need of industrial integration, there is always a substantial theme of overall listing or acquisition by the strong (whether it is Baosteel Group's massive purchase of its regular shares and warrants from the secondary market, Handan Steel Group's increase in its own shares, or Mittal's intention to buy shares in G Baotou Steel), Therefore, as a financial derivative, steel warrants have always attracted the attention of many speculative funds.

For the operation of warrants, what we always advocate is to "watch it with cold eyes and grasp the big band". We have repeatedly stressed that we must pay more attention to the capacity, turnover, whether the technical indicators of warrants are adjusted in place, whether the buying signal is sent, etc., to start to study whether there is a relatively strong upward trend in the warrant sector in the short term. This is also the essence of warrant operation.

From the current technical trend of the three steel warrants of Handan Iron and Steel Group, Baotou Iron and Steel Group and Wuhan Iron and Steel Group, it is indeed very beautiful, which is a typical state of readiness and conforms to the warrant's large band operation theory. In particular, Baosteel's warrants, which have been depressing their trend recently, were finally suspended on Thursday, giving them an opportunity to rise sharply. In addition, due to the relatively optimistic trend of the short-term market (at present, both the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 have sent a clear leading warning signal that the market will continue to shake and draw back the 60 day moving average), we expect that once the three steel warrants that have been unloaded can be significantly scaled up on Thursday, It is very likely that there will be a galloping market like a runaway wild horse, similar to the wave of put warrants represented by Guangzhou Airport Warrants in mid July.