New Express News (reporter Wu Tan) Recently, the stock market has shown a pattern of weak market oscillation. Last week, although there was a rebound in the reduction of issuance scale by Air China, there is still doubt whether the rebound can continue. Some investors believe that it is still difficult to make money by going long in stocks at present, so it is better to speculate on warrants. Maybe there is a chance to make money. However, analysts cautioned that it is better not to participate in the upcoming "doomsday round". Other warrants are not all worth taking risks. In particular, many warrants have certain price bubbles, and there are few operational opportunities for warrants in the near future.
The value of the first maturing warrants is almost zero
The first batch of expired Baosteel warrants ( information quotation forum ) Vanke ( information quotation forum ) During this period, the warrants issued prompt announcements frequently to remind investors that as the expiration date of the warrants approaches, the time value of the warrants will wear out faster, and the time value will become zero by the exercise date. In fact, it is not only the time value, but also the inherent value of these two warrants is almost zero because the possibility of exercise at maturity is very small, so the risk of speculation is very high.
From today (14th), Baosteel Warrant（ Baosteel JTB1 ( information quotation forum ) , 580000) is 8 trading days away from its last trading day, August 23. From G Baosteel ( information quotation forum ) According to the current performance, it is unlikely to exceed 4.20 yuan, which is almost meaningless to exercise, and the value of Baosteel warrants is almost zero. As the maturity date approaches, the price of Baosteel's warrants has also fallen step by step, reaching a new low since its listing last Friday. Since August 29, Vanke warrants（ Vanke HRP1 ( information quotation forum ) , 038002) also began to exercise, and the initial exercise price was 3.73 yuan. At present, the price of Vanke's regular shares is close to 6 yuan, and it continues to be optimistic for institutional investors, so Vanke's warrants are also worthless.
Careful Selection of Objects for Speculation of Put Warrants
Zheng Yan of Xiangcai Securities said that recently, the stock exchange and listed companies have repeatedly warned about risks, which has to some extent curbed the enthusiasm of warrants for significant upward movement, which is more reflected in the volatility opportunities of local warrants, but the operability is greatly reduced, and the big opportunities are estimated to be generated after the expiration of the two warrants.
The reporter noticed that in the current volatile market, warrant investors mostly focus on speculation of put warrants. "Under multiple pressures such as the expansion of new shares, the lifting of restrictions on" Xiaofei "(non tradable shares with a shareholding ratio of less than 5%) and macro-control, it is estimated that there will not be much rise before the end of the year, and it is unlikely to make money by taking long positions. In this case, It's better to go short. At present, we retail investors can only go short through put warrants. "
However, Mr. Tang, a retail investor, believes that a put warrant is not a random choice to make money. For example, the other two warrants that will expire within the year Shenneng JTP1 ( information quotation forum ) 、 Airport JTP1 ( information quotation forum ) Although there is still some value at present, it is still difficult to do so in the current situation where the market direction is not clear because the gap between the positive share price and the exercise price is smaller than the warrant price.
Taking the third expiring Shenneng JTP1 (which will start exercising on October 20) as an example, the exercise price of the put warrant is 7.12 yuan. At present, the company's share price is 6.75 yuan, but the price of Shenneng JTP1 is close to 0.6 yuan at present. If you buy the warrant now to prepare for exercise arbitrage, you will definitely lose money.
As for Airport JTP1 (expiring on December 22), it also faces the same problem. In addition, Airport JTP1 is a European style warrant that began to exercise in March this year. At present, it is not clear how many warrants were originally issued (which will be announced every trading day created by the securities firm), which increases the difficulty of judgment.
(Jinling/Prepared)
