Securities Times reporter Zhu Xuelian
After falling continuously, the warrant market fell sharply again yesterday. Among them, Vanke put warrants fell the most, down 18.18% to 0.09 yuan, followed by CIMC put warrants and Baotou Steel call warrants, down 13.32% respectively, and Baosteel call warrants also fell 10.6%. The Shanghai market put warrants and Valin put warrants, which have performed well recently, fell the least, down 1.27% and 1.47% respectively.
Return of value is inevitable
"This is the only way to return value," said Yang Guoping, a warrant analyst with Shenyin Wanguo.
In fact, the market had expected the decline of Vanke put warrants as early as the beginning of listing. The exercise price of Vanke put warrants is 3.638 yuan. Since the listing of the warrants, the price of G Vanke A has been more than 5 yuan, and the latest closing price is 5.68 yuan. The theoretical value of warrants is always zero. September 4, 2006 is the exercise period of Vanke put warrants. The transaction is terminated five trading days before the expiration of the duration, that is, the trading will be suspended on August 29, 2006. The value of a small amount of time tends to zero as the expiration date approaches. Baosteel call warrants will also be exercised on August 30, and the last trading day will be August 23. The current intrinsic value is also zero.
The squeeze of these two warrant bubbles has obviously hit the popularity of the entire warrant market. "The power of an example is endless," Yang Guoping said with a smile, "the bubble in the warrant market still needs to be squeezed." He pointed out that although the recent decline of warrants, the positive shares have also continued to decline, so the middle premium has not significantly decreased. For example, the market price of Baotou Steel's subscription is still 36% higher than its intrinsic value, while Wanhua, Moutai, Wuliang and other "quasi Vanke warrants" The intrinsic value is lower and the bubble degree is more serious. Even if there was once arbitrage space for such as Valin put and Shanghai market put warrants, bubbles also appeared after the cumulative rise, not to mention that "the market is not good now, who still has the mind to play for too long, and if they earn a little, they should close down immediately." A private equity fund manager quipped.
It's not over yet?
However, although the "landing" of Vanke put warrants is no surprise, the decline process is not a linear movement, and speculators always like to look for opportunities in the band operation. Yesterday, the reporter witnessed an investor's panic attack. At 10:50 in the morning, Mr. Li, an investor, suddenly found that Vanke put warrants had once dropped below 0.1 yuan in the morning, the lowest being 0.099 yuan. After wandering around 0.101 yuan, there seemed to be an upward trend again. "The price has fallen so low that there is a chance." When he said something, he quickly listed a purchase order for 1 million shares at 0.101, but hesitated to change 1 million shares into 500000 shares. After the event, he explained to the reporter, "Now the risk tips of warrants are flying all over the world, so first practice your hands."
His brief hesitation averted greater losses. After 11:00, Vanke Warrants firmly fell below the 0.1 yuan mark and went down all the way. Mr. Li saw the situation was not good. At 11:05, all the warrants were cleared at 0.099 yuan. In less than a quarter of an hour, the net loss was 1000 yuan, excluding service charges. In the afternoon, Vanke put warrants continued to decline and closed at the lowest price of the day.
"It is better to focus on Baosteel call warrants than speculate on Vanke put warrants." Yang Guoping pointed out that the exercise price of Baosteel call warrants was 4.2 yuan, and the latest share price was 4.18 yuan, a small gap between the two. Generally speaking, such warrants can be called parity warrants, and the leverage of parity warrants is the most significant. Considering that the steel shares have been adjusted for a long time, it is not ruled out that after the Baosteel warrant fell to a certain extent, the main force slightly raised the regular shares, which led to the sharp rise of warrants through the leverage effect of "four or two shifts of a thousand pounds". At the same time, considering that the market has fallen sharply in the recent period, short-term rebound forces are accumulating, and the warrant market is expected to usher in a round of rebound. Yang Guoping suggested that investors should pay due attention to Wuliang warrants, steel warrants and other warrants with high intrinsic value.
Another market person said that in fact, it is not uncommon to push up the warrant by pushing up the regular shares, and Wuliang warrant is one of the typical examples. Before the listing of warrants, G Wuliangye The increase is not significant. Since the listing of the warrant on April 3, Wuliangye's regular shares have started to rise sharply, especially in the three trading days before and after the May Day holiday, the regular shares have risen by a maximum of nearly 70% in just eight trading days. In the same period, the warrant has also soared, rising from less than 4 yuan to more than 11 yuan, more than twice as much. The leverage charm of warrants is fully displayed, which is also the main reason why investors are still happy when they know the risks of warrants. However, it is obvious that the current market environment is different from that in April. The same operation is much more difficult at present, and investors should also be cautious.
The risk is huge, and it is only advisable to look at it from afar
In general, at present, the market risk of warrants is far greater than the opportunity. As time goes by, the time value of warrants will gradually evaporate, and the overvalued intrinsic value will push most warrants on the road of return, and more losses and less gains will become the theme. However, as long as there is a chance of profiteering, there will be a game of fools for brave people. It is understood that many investors are eager to wait for the crazy foolishness after these zero value varieties finally fall to 1 cent or even a few cents, because "a penny increase means multiple or even multiple profits." Mr. Li is looking forward to it. It seems that the final craziness of the warrant market may not have emerged, and analysts suggest that investors should take a long view.
