With the confirmation of Ansteel Group this week Pangang Steel Vanadium (000629. SZ) The exercise price of the second cash option of shareholders with options, for those investors who had ambushed Pangang Steel Vanadium for arbitrage early, now there is another lesson to do, that is, whether to choose to exercise the first cash option or to exercise the second cash option two years later?
The conditions for secondary selection are excellent
Panzhihua Iron and Steel Vanadium announced on November 5 that the shareholders of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Vanadium who failed to fully declare the exercise of the cash option on the deadline of the first reporting period of the cash option will obtain the second cash option right, and have the right to sell their shares of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Vanadium to Angang Steel Group at a price of 10.55 yuan per share in a specific period two years after the deadline of the first reporting period. The number of rights is equal to the number of Pangang Steel Vanadium shares held by Pangang Steel Vanadium which did not declare to exercise the cash option during the initial reporting period.
At the same time, the announcement also said that the shareholders who enjoy the second cash option after the declaration period of the first cash option would be identified by locking the shareholders' account with the right. At the same time, the right would not be affected by how the shareholders' account bought and sold the shares of Pangang Steel Vanadium during the duration until the implementation of the second cash option was completed.
In order to enhance the attractiveness of the second cash option, Anshan Iron and Steel Group also stated in the announcement that if the company's shares were distributed dividends between the deadline of the first cash option reporting period and the start date of the second cash option exercise period, the second cash option price would not be subject to ex dividend treatment.
At the same time, Pangang Group, the controlling shareholder of Pangang Steel Vanadium, also promised that, on the premise that Pangang Steel Vanadium met the conditions for cash dividends, it would propose to distribute cash dividends to the shareholders' meeting of Pangang Steel Vanadium in 2008~2009, with the standard of no less than 1.2 yuan (tax included) per 10 shares, At the same time, they will vote in favor of the proposal (if the shares of listed companies are ex right, the standard will be adjusted accordingly).
Compared with the exercise price of 9.59 yuan for the first cash option, the comprehensive annual rate of return, including the difference between the cash dividends during the holding period and the two exercise prices, of investors who choose to continue to hold shares until the second cash option reporting period and exercise their options will be no less than 6% based on 9.59 yuan. In other words, the investors with the second cash option hold the shares of Pangang Steel Vanadium equivalent to a two-year bond with an annual yield of at least 6%, but they also enjoy the contingent income once the market environment changes and the share price of Pangang Steel Vanadium rises more than 10.55 yuan.
It provides such excellent conditions for secondary selection, which is also the wisdom of Ansteel Group.
A market person with more than ten years of investment experience told the First Financial Daily that it is not easy for any enterprise to take out about 20 billion yuan in cash at one time, and I believe Ansteel Group is no exception. The reason why it has given such generous conditions is, on the one hand, that it certainly hopes to reduce the financial pressure of the first cash option declaration, which will be digested two years later; On the other hand, it can also avoid that all shareholders with options sell their shares to Pangang Vanadium, which will trigger the delisting process. However, it also provides investors with a good investment opportunity.
Investment opportunities come again
The above market personage said that actually the second cash option of Pangang Steel Vanadium is equivalent to providing the rights owner with a function of securities lending. Since the rights are locked in the shareholder account, this does not affect the rights owner to buy and sell shares of Pangang Steel Vanadium. If investors can sell at a high level and buy back at a low level, there is no need to consider the issue of shipment, that is, there is no need to worry about the risk of the stock price continuing to fall.
However, the market person also reminded that there are also some points to be noted in the process of the above inverted price difference operation, among which the most critical point is to choose the proportion of the first exercise of cash option and the second exercise of shares, which is crucial for future investors in the game with Ansteel Group.
At present, the market generally expects that Angang Group will complete the declaration of the first cash option before the beginning of the exercise period of Pangang Vanadium Warrant. However, after losing the support of the cash option, under the current market conditions, there is no doubt that the price of Pangang's regular shares will plummet, and whether the price of regular shares will fall below the exercise price of the warrants of 3.266 yuan is still unknown, This is a factor that has a greater impact on the game of all parties in the future market, because it involves whether there will be 740 million new circulating shares of Pangang Steel Vanadium.
According to the analysis of the above market participants, assuming that all Panzhihua Iron and Steel warrants are exercised as scheduled, how many shares remain to choose to exercise the cash option for the second time and the positioning of the new Panzhihua Iron and Steel's share price will have a great impact on the operation of the right holders in the future market. For example, if most investors choose to exercise the cash option for the first time, leaving only 100 million shares to be exercised for the second time, then even if the stock price drops significantly to the level of 3 to 4 yuan, Ansteel Group is unlikely to buy ahead of time. Because of the existence of 740 million new shares, Ansteel Group can reduce the possibility of exercising one share for every 8.4 shares purchased, The cost is higher than the direct fulfillment of commitments. However, if 740 million shares remain to be exercised for the second time, as long as the share price is lower than 5.275 yuan, Angang Group can still save a lot of money by buying back some shares in advance. Moreover, from the current market situation, the reasonable price of Pangang is expected to be less than 4 yuan.
The person said that only by preparing for various situations that may occur in the future, investors can take corresponding countermeasures in a timely manner to avoid the risk of not buying back the underlying securities when taking advantage of securities lending rights. He suggested that for ordinary investors who have made a lot of profits in advance, it would be prudent to choose the first cash option. For those investors with a certain analytical ability, choosing the second cash option can be said to be an investment option that can make a steady profit without loss and is far stronger than bank deposits under the current interest rate reduction channel, not to mention the possibility that the stock price of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Corporation will rise more than 10.55 yuan once the market recovers. Zhang Zhibin
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal opinion, which is only for investors' reference and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
