Will new funds bring new highs

Last Friday, the A-share market plunged before the afternoon market. Fortunately, the transportation and logistics sector and the non-ferrous metal sector started quickly, which helped the market to stop falling and stabilize. However, it still failed to change the trend characteristics of the A-share market last week, that is, the trend of the A-share market rose and fell first, and then rose, which also left a little shadow on this week's trend.

□ Bohai Investment Qinhong

Estimate the enclosed springing space

The rise and fall of A-share market last week is mainly due to Bank of China 、 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China The first tier index stocks represented by ICBC and others experienced a sharp rise and fall last week. The red Monday of last week was triggered by the sharp rise of financial stocks such as ICBC. However, since financial stocks continued to decline, especially the decline of financial index on last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index once plunged. In other words, the trend of index stocks directly affects the operating trend of the market.

The rise and fall of index stocks is largely due to the constraints of valuation. It is undeniable that the performance growth of bank shares is indeed beyond the market expectations, but even so, its valuation is still relatively high, the P/B ratio is still about 4 times, and the P/E ratio is as high as about 30 times, which means that such stocks have basically reflected the performance growth expectations of 2007. If there is no new data showing that the performance growth is beyond expectations, such individual stocks will have little room for further soaring. Interestingly, the pressure of valuation is not only reflected in the first tier index stocks such as Bank of China, but also in many second tier blue chips, including Shanxi Fenjiu 、 Luzhou Laojiao Such individual stocks are all like this. Last week, such individual stocks also had the trend of capital outflow, which made the market appear the trend characteristics of rising and falling.

Valuation pressure is difficult to break through

Many insiders are still optimistic about the short-term trend. The reason is that, on the one hand, the main driving force to support market sentiment and raise market index is the strength of low-cost stocks and capital injection concept stocks. The decline of first tier index stocks and second tier blue chip stocks will not change the market trend; On the other hand, the A-share market is still rich in funds. As far as funds are concerned, since the Spring Festival, there have been seven new equity open-ended funds issued, including CCB's optimized allocation, Cinda Australia Bank's leading growth, Great Wall Jiufu's core growth, Huitianfu's growth, CNOOC Energy, Huafu's growth, and Franklin Guohai. If you add some incremental funds brought by "closed to open" and the subscription of old funds, It is expected to bring more than 70 billion yuan of incremental capital to the market. With such a large amount of capital, the Shanghai Composite Index has the power to further rise.

However, in my opinion, abundant funds cannot be directly equated with the overall market innovation. First, the main idea of the fund is still to take the enterprise value as the starting point for stock selection. At present, both the first tier indicator stocks and the second tier blue chip stocks are facing the constraints of valuation. Even though abundant funds will bring valuation premium effect, under the background of the current dynamic P/E ratio and dynamic P/B ratio, it is obviously unrealistic to expect this batch of funds to significantly increase their positions, that is, It is difficult for new funds to change the embarrassing situation of overvaluation of listed companies.

Second, some popular stocks in the current A-share market have declined. Among them, the wide fluctuation of S shares and ST shares without share reform at the end of last week shows that the supervision has increased its deterrent to speculation funds. However, once S shares and ST shares are significantly adjusted, it will inevitably lead to weak market sentiment, which will eventually lead to the rise and fall of the A-share market. This is also a market feature that Xinduo Fund is difficult to change, because most of S shares and ST shares rely on restructuring expectations, and some simply manipulate by taking advantage of capital advantages, which will obviously not be favored by Xinduo Fund.

Focus on two types of individual stocks

Therefore, under the constraints of valuation, it is difficult to generate a breakthrough market in the A-share market at present, or even exclude the possibility of a sharp decline under the expectation of the diving of S shares and ST shares. That is to say, the trend of the market this week may not be particularly optimistic, and beware of short-term fluctuations or even the "late spring cold" trend.

However, in operation, it is suggested that investors should not be overly pessimistic, because the bull market fulcrum of the A-share market is still very strong at present, and short-term adjustment is only due to the strategic consideration of time for space. Therefore, in actual operation, it is suggested that investors should pay close attention to two types of stocks: first, the "neglected" leading stocks in industry segments that are currently becoming a hot spot in the market, include Time science and technology 、 Jinrui Technology 、 Jingshan Light Machine 、 Red Star Development 、 Jingxin Pharmaceutical , China Haicheng, etc. Second, focus on individual stocks with very optimistic industry space and in line with national industrial policy guidance, including Luyang Shares in the energy conservation and environmental protection sector Cnlight 、 Lianchuang Optoelectronics Including Huanghai Shares in the automotive service industry. In addition, it is also a leading stock in the industry with capital injection expectations Northern Skybird Such stocks can also be properly tracked.