National Securities R&D Center Huang Changqing
Through data analysis, the trading activity of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and warrant markets in 2006 is positively correlated, with a high degree of correlation; Relatively speaking, the trading activity of Shanghai, Shenzhen and warrant markets increased in turn, and the average turnover/average total market value of the three markets were 0.54%, 1.05% and 56.92% respectively; Since it was newly listed in Shanghai in 2006 Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Therefore, it has a certain impact on the trading activity of the Shanghai market. Considering that large cap stocks such as PetroChina and China Life Insurance may continue to land next year, the trading activity of the Shanghai market will still be lower than that of the Shenzhen market.
The trading volume of warrants will continue to increase in 2007
Since the current restricted tradable shares are three times of the tradable shares, there are generally certain restrictions on the number of restricted tradable shares that can be lifted in 2007, such as Thermo-year-old treasure hold Minsheng Bank The number of legal person shares sold does not exceed that of Minsheng Bank held by the company shares 20% of; Therefore, without considering other factors, the trading volume next year will increase by 60% compared with this year. For the trading of warrants, since the share reform is basically over this year, the possibility of issuing new share reform warrants in 2007 is basically non-existent; However, equity warrants as refinancing will still exist and their scale will continue to expand, including warrants issued by separate convertible bonds, which will constitute the main body of increased warrant trading volume in 2007.
As the subject of overseas transactions, covered warrants need the cooperation of market makers and other new trading mechanisms, so it is unlikely to be fully launched in 2007. The regulators may choose ETF covered warrants as a pilot, but the scale of the pilot will not be large. In general, the trading volume of warrants next year will exceed that of this year, and the extent of the excess depends on the progress of covered warrants pilot.
Brokerage companies make huge profits by borrowing warrants
When warrants are overvalued, that is, when the price of warrants is far higher than their exercise value, innovative securities firms can profit from the creation of warrants. After the creation of warrants, securities companies can sell them, and then wait for the price of warrants to fall back, buy them back at a low level and write them off to earn the price difference. The profit mechanism is the same as short selling.
The statistical principles for the establishment and cancellation of securities firms are as follows (as of December 7):
1. As there are some warrants created by securities companies that have not yet been written off, only the profits of warrant creation business of securities companies that have been written off are counted;
2. According to the principle of "later creation, first cancellation", the profit calculation shall be carried out for the part of creation closest to the cancellation date;
3. Since the specific prices of the creation, sale and purchase cancellation of the securities firms cannot be known, considering that the price of the warrants will be depressed after the securities firms announce the creation, the closing price of the day on the creation date is selected as the reference price for the creation and sale of the securities firms; Select the opening price of the trading day prior to the cancellation date as the reference price for buying and canceling.
The statistical results show that in 2006, there were 16 innovative securities companies that created and cancelled warrants, and 514 times of creation and cancellation of warrants that had achieved profit taking. Warrant trading contributed a total of 3.644 billion yuan of commission to all securities companies, and the warrant creation business contributed 1.704 billion yuan of profit to 16 securities companies, which is quite considerable.
Similar to the risks of short selling, the creation of warrants also has risks. For example, a securities firm has suffered losses in the process of creating Guodian warrants. In 2006, the overall performance of the warrant market was a process of returning from madness to rationality. Next year, the space for securities companies to make profits by creating businesses will gradually shrink, and the risks will gradually increase. The prospects are not optimistic; But as long as there is speculation in the warrant market, there will be opportunities to short or create.
