Big Winner Fortune
On Wednesday morning, the market fluctuated and sorted out PetroChina 、 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China The adjustment of such index stocks once drove the market down nearly 5200 points, but the Olympic sector rose strongly, Beichen Industry More than 10 Beijing stocks closed their trading limits, stimulating the enthusiasm of the market to go long. Individual stocks except the first tier large cap stocks rose almost all the time, offsetting the pressure of index stock adjustment.
In the afternoon, the stock index continued to maintain the pattern of shock and rising, and the trading volume slightly increased, indicating that the market popularity has gradually recovered, and the "August 2" phenomenon was more obvious. The Olympic plate that has been brewing for a long time in the near future Quanjude 、 Yanjing Beer Under the leadership of individual stocks, the overall rise, with an average increase of more than 6%, greatly encouraged the market sentiment. With the coming of 2008, people are paying attention to it Beijing Olympic Games The grand event has entered the overall sprint stage, and the release of the economic effects of the Olympic Games has gradually changed to the consumption driven during the Olympic Games and the brand building in the post Olympic period. However, tourism, commercial retail, food and beverage, transportation, media and other consumer driven industries, as well as the leap of some Olympic sponsor brands represented by the home appliance industry, will be a hot topic in the capital market under the Olympic economic effect.
From a global perspective, it is believed that with the deepening of economic globalization and the gradual liberalization of capital account, the linkage between A-share and peripheral stock markets has been greatly strengthened. At present, the boom cycle of global stock markets has not ended. Although the valuation level of A-share is the highest in the world, this level is not significantly overestimated in emerging market countries in view of the growth of the real economy. In general, although there are external risks, the attraction of A-shares to capital in the world is still obvious.
Now, the concept of extensional growth value investment will subvert the traditional concept of endogenous value investment. After repeated excavation of the valuation "depression" in the past two years, the endogenous value of blue chips and blue chips has been fully reflected in the share prices, and even overestimated. Under the influence of tight economic, financial and monetary policies, their growth performance will decline in 2008. Therefore, value investment must expand its breadth, that is, from endogenous growth to extensional growth of restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, capital injection and overall listing; From conventional growth to explosive growth; From traditional industrial growth to industrial upgrading and independent innovation growth; From the growth of single main business to the growth of diversified investment, equity investment and venture capital; From pure performance growth to equity expansion growth. In particular, the upcoming launch of the GEM will further weaken the market's valuation of the P/E ratio of small and medium-sized stocks, attract people's favor of the concept of outward growth value investment, and even this new concept will run through the stock market in 2008.
This year, the opportunities in the first quarter are mainly in January and February. 1、 February, around the Spring Festival, is not only a vacuum period for capacity expansion, but also a period for management personnel transfer, as well as a period of operational excitement for institutions to achieve annual profit indicators. Therefore, the overall market will be dominated by shocks and upward trends. Growth stocks such as small and medium-sized stocks will take turns to hype and rise rapidly. In March, the stock index may fluctuate widely.
In addition, the basic strategies of industry allocation are: first, select industries with clear growth and possible steady improvement; 2、 Reflect a certain degree of defensiveness. We are optimistic about cyclical industries: steel, power, cement, building materials, coal, etc. It is expected that the investment regained due to changes in the domestic and international environment in the second half of this year will be more in favor of downstream consumption and service industries with stable and clear performance growth, such as finance, real estate, retail, food and beverage, catering tourism, medicine and biology, which will be the core configuration of the whole year.
Wansheng, North
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
