Guangzhou Bandung

Abstract: Since September, Shanghai composite index After hitting a new high of 5357.93 points in a strong way, the trend of shock callback was launched for two consecutive trading days; Although the overall trend of the market is relatively stable, the cooling of mainstream hot spots and the further differentiation of individual stock trends show that the investment mentality has become increasingly cautious. It is worth noting that the 5300 point area where the Shanghai Composite Index is currently located is the same as the 5? Compared with the 4334.92 point before the 30 sharp decline, the stock index has risen by more than 1000 points, or more than 23%. The author believes that the dialectical view of the market on the relationship between the 5300 point market high and the 530 point market fall will play a positive reference significance for future market development and operational decision-making.

Market conditions today

Following the trend of last day, the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets continued to carry out the market shock adjustment on Wednesday, and the stock indexes of the two cities recovered after making up for Monday's upward gap. The overall trend was relatively stable, with a total turnover of about 237.68 billion. Judging from the trend of the stock index operation throughout the day, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 5296.07 points in the morning and began to fall back after surging to 5337.93 points, falling to 5223.67 points at the lowest point in the day, and made up for Monday's upward gap. The tail market rebounded and finally closed in red. The Shenzhen Composite Index has a similar trend, showing a trend of shock adjustment and stabilization.

From the perspective of market conditions, the trend of individual stocks continues to show differentiation, with 353:312 of Shenzhen market and 438:410 of Shanghai market. In terms of the increase list, Elion Technology 、 Dingsheng Tiangong 、 Reno sun 、 Guotong Pipe 、 Intel Group 、 Public technology 、 Chengde Lulu 29 non ST stocks closed at the limit. From the ranking of popular sectors, the coal sector ranked first with an average increase of 4.38% Lu'an Huanneng 、 Shanghai Energy 、 Guoyang Xinneng 、 Panjiang Shares And so on. Secondly, take Chinalco Non ferrous metal stocks, represented by, have rebounded sharply after the recent correction. The theme stocks of private placement that introduce strategic investors or acquire assets continue to be sought after by the market, such as Eastern airlines 、 COSCO Etc.

On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 5296.07 points, with the highest of 5337.93 points and the lowest of 5223.67 points, closing at 5310.72 points, up 16.68 points, or 0.32%, with a turnover of 152.905 billion yuan; The Shenzhen Composite Index opened at 18050.58 points, the highest was 18137.46 points, the lowest was 17679.57 points, and closed at 18002.00 points, down 48.78 points, or 0.27%, with a turnover of 84.775 billion yuan.

Today's news

On Wednesday, investors should pay attention to the following information:

1. Authorities from the regulatory authorities said yesterday that the "Hong Kong Stock Direct Train" business is expected to be launched in the next two months. The "Hong Kong Stock Direct Train" scheme has basically taken shape. According to the plan, the Hong Kong stock direct train will be piloted in Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. BOC, ICBC and CCB are expected to carry out this business at the same time, and the threshold of access will be raised to 300000, which is expected to be launched in the next two months.

2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission recently approved the New York Stock Exchange to set up a representative office in Beijing. This is the first representative office in China approved by an overseas stock exchange since the implementation of the Measures for the Administration of Representative Offices of Overseas Stock Exchanges in China on July 1 this year.

3. Bi Jingquan, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said yesterday that in August, China's consumer price index (CPI) may rise more than in July. In July, China's CPI rose 5.6% year on year, hitting a new high since March 1997.

4. The Medium and Long Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy issued by the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday proposed that by 2010, the consumption of renewable energy should reach about 10% of the total energy consumption, and by 2020, it should reach about 15%; Basically eliminate environmental pollution caused by organic wastes; By 2010, we will basically realize the equipment capacity based on domestic manufacturing equipment, and by 2020, we will form the domestic renewable energy equipment capacity based on our own intellectual property rights.

5. According to the recent analysis report of Shenwan Research Institute on stock market funds, the stock of funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased significantly in August, with the stock of funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets being about 1300 billion yuan, an increase of 220 billion yuan over the previous month.

Brief comment on future market

Since September, the Shanghai Composite Index has started a shock and correction trend for two consecutive trading days after hitting a new high of 5357.93 points; Although the overall trend of the market is relatively stable, the cooling of mainstream hot spots and the further differentiation of individual stock trends show that the investment mentality has become increasingly cautious. It is worth noting that the 5300 point area where the Shanghai Composite Index is currently located is the same as the 5? Compared with the 4334.92 point before the 30 sharp decline, the stock index has risen by more than 1000 points, or more than 23%. The author believes that the market dialectically views 5300 points as a new high and 5? The relationship between the sharp decline of the market will play a positive reference role in the future market development and operational decision-making.

Review 5? 30 In the context of the sharp decline, although the direct regulation policy issued by the management for the securities market is an important inducement, the inevitable factor for its adjustment is the irrational continuous surge of the market. According to the statistics of the author, in the 5th Five Year Plan period? Before the 30% slump, from March 19 to May 29, 2007, the textile chemical fiber, textile machinery, motorcycles, ceramics, instruments and meters and other sectors rose by more than 100%, including 165% for the motorcycle industry, 138% for the chemical fiber industry, and 126% for instruments and meters, In just two months or so, the stock prices of some theme varieties lacking performance support have doubled several times, and the market speculation atmosphere is quite strong. Of course, this irrational rise in the market has much to do with the participation of a large number of new shareholders who lack professional knowledge. This retail dominated investor structure once made the market speculative atmosphere popular. In the sense of risk education, the policy induced? The 30's slump is a wake-up call for the market.

It is noted that since this round of rising market launched a strong upward attack on July 20, up to now, the trend of strong shock and rising in the market remains intact. A careful analysis of the recent hot spot performance shows that this round of market rise is supported by solid fundamentals. According to the statistics, from July 20 to the close of Wednesday, the steel industry ranked first among the hot sectors with an increase of 62.96%, followed by nonferrous metals and coal industries, with an increase of more than 50%. In addition, transportation, water supply and gas supply, hotel tourism, electricity and other sectors all performed well. In fact, the continuous strengthening of the market in the recent stage is supported by solid fundamentals, which also shows that the market has changed from excessive speculation in the early stage to advocating the concept of value investment. Judging from the interim report performance that has just been disclosed, the comparable sample net profit of listed companies in the first half of 2007 increased by 69.87%, and the corresponding mid 2007 dynamic P/E ratio fell to about 36.16 times, still within a relatively reasonable valuation range. From this perspective, the continuous rise of the market since July 20 is the rational reflection of the market on the unexpected growth of the medium-term performance of listed companies.

Adequate liquidity is an important fundamental factor supporting the bull market. According to statistics, in August, the number of new funds issued and the splitting of old funds increased the fund's new capital to nearly 200 billion yuan, which is why the continuous supply of funds has become an important driving force for the market to maintain a strong climb. It was noted that although the central bank continued to increase the withdrawal of funds in the past August, at present, the central bank bills due within the year are about 1267.05 billion yuan, including 437 billion yuan in September. Obviously, abundant funds provide good financial support for the development of future market.

It is worth reminding that with the rising of the index and the high static valuation, the overall market valuation attraction is gradually weakening. Although the market generally believes that the market is expected to continue to maintain a relatively loose policy environment next month, in addition to the internal and external environment of market operation, the overall investment value of the market is the fundamental factor for the healthy development of the market. The author believes that the return process of overseas blue chips is very urgent because of the market demand for value investment varieties and efforts to improve the current structure of listed companies and the level of market investment value.

It is worth noting that since the split share structure reform, Bank of China Air China China Life 、 Ping An, China The overseas listed blue chips have returned to the A-share market, while China Industrial and Commercial Bank of China It has also historically created the mode of "A+H" synchronous issuance and listing. The batch return of overseas blue chips has made the A-share market scale develop by leaps and bounds. China this week bank for economic construction It is expected that in the future, PetroChina , China Mobile, CNOOC, Shenhua Energy, China Telecom, China Netcom, China Property and Casualty Insurance will return to A-share market in succession. The "batch return" of overseas blue chips will undoubtedly increase the supply of high-quality stocks in the A-share market, help improve the structure of A-share listed companies and further enhance the overall investment value of the market.

Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.