What potential sectors to focus on in the slump
http://www.sina.com.cn 17:16, August 1, 2007 Sina Finance
Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The characteristics of today's hot spot rotation are obvious, including banks, real estate and steel. However, due to the excessive rise of the market in the short term, the long effect of hot spot rotation is difficult to spread effectively, and the market psychology is more cautious. Most importantly, the slump in the surrounding markets has also had a certain negative impact on A-shares.
1) Comments on today's market hot spots: the characteristics of today's hot spots are obvious, including banks, real estate and steel. However, due to the excessive rise of the market in the short term, the long effect of hot spots is difficult to spread effectively, and the market psychology is more cautious. Most importantly, the slump in the surrounding markets has also had a certain negative impact on A-shares.
This column believes that although there is still no reflection on the current panel, the concept of the west is worth the strategic layout. From the policy perspective, the development of the western region has been continuously promoted National Development and Reform Commission It was announced that in order to further promote the western development strategy and implement the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" for the western development, the state plans to start 10 new key projects in the western region in 2007, with a total investment of 151.6 billion yuan. From the specific direction of investment, a considerable part of the funds are mainly concentrated on infrastructure construction such as railways, roads, airports, etc.
Generally speaking, the driving force of western development mainly comes from two aspects. One is the preferential policy, including government investment and preferential policies. The second is the traction function of the market itself. As for the former, the government has always taken a series of actions, such as the above mentioned 10 new key projects in the western region in 2007, and the approval of Chongqing and Chengdu to establish a national pilot zone for comprehensive urban and rural reform. For the latter, the traction effect is increasing. First of all, the rising real estate prices in recent years reflect this trend: energy In the case of rising prices of such factors as labor, environmental protection, etc., enterprises in the eastern coastal areas are facing significantly increased pressure on operating costs, and it is inevitable that some industries will transfer to the west, which is also in line with the characteristics of rural urbanization. Secondly, the government has raised the resource tax, which shows that under the background of rapid macroeconomic growth, the scarcity of non renewable resources will increase day by day. According to the distribution of mineral resources in China, the western region has most of the country's resources, 90% of the verified coal reserves are concentrated in North China, Northwest China and Southwest China, and 70% of the verified phosphorus reserves are concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Hubei provinces; Iron ore is mainly concentrated in Liaoning, Hebei, Sichuan, Shanxi and other provinces. Therefore, Resource advantages It will become another powerful driving force for the local economy.
Specifically, Xinjiang deserves attention. Among more than 170 kinds of mineral resources with proven reserves in China, there are more than 130 kinds in Xinjiang, of which oil resources account for 30% of domestic onshore oil resources; natural gas The resources account for 34% of the domestic onshore natural gas resources, and coal accounts for about 40% of the national reserves. This column believes that under the dual promotion of national policies and market forces, the development speed of Xinjiang will be significantly accelerated.
2) Recent stock selection ideas and suggestions: In recent articles, this column has always stressed that we should be cautious and try to select individual stocks with relatively small increases. The main guiding ideology is that the market has already had the requirement of adjustment, and the systematic risk has increased significantly.
Looking forward to the future, this column believes that the way of market adjustment should be rapid, so it may stop falling and stabilize in two or three days, and return to the rising trend. For investors, this may be a good opportunity to build positions at a low level. Specifically, there are still two types of shares. One is the theme share with asset injection, and the best is the theme share with resource injection. Second, individual stocks with high distribution themes. The coming month will still be an intensive period of disclosure in the China Daily, and the theme of high distribution will still be one of the main targets of the market.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
