Jiuding Desheng: a big roof may have been formed

□ Jiuding Desheng Xiao Yuhang

On Wednesday, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets fell in shock and volume, with a total turnover of 150 billion yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Real estate stocks in the two cities became an important short selling force that triggered the market plunge, Vanke A 、 Poly Real Estate 、 China Merchants Real Estate 、 Gemdale Group Such strong stocks are determined to decline due to large volume. Judging from the firm limit decline of these varieties, the decline of the real estate sector indicates that the holding of the strongest sector in the market has begun to waver. For the future market, the author believes that there will still be a major decline in the strong sector over the years, which may focus on construction machinery, military products lacking performance support, and some financial securities, Therefore, it is very likely that the probability of the formation of the summit in 2007 is very high.

Judging from the overall trend of the Shanghai Composite Index on Wednesday, financial heavyweights rose in the late morning Industrial and Commercial Bank of China After a false breakthrough in the Shanghai Stock Exchange was formed, the selling surged in the afternoon. Under the influence of most of the limit falls of the real estate stocks in the two cities, the market began to fall and turned upside down in the late trading. Judging from the trend of the heavyweight Vanke A, the daily limit of 2.66 billion yuan released by Vanke A has at least indicated that the main market institutions have begun to cash in their chips. From the perspective of its position varieties, there is still a considerable distance. From the perspective of the varieties with good growth, it is mainly concentrated in the low price stocks with extremely poor performance, and the performance of these varieties is more of a means of supplementing growth, Its short-term characteristics are obvious, its continuity is weak, and its appeal to the market is limited.

For the future market, as the most powerful real estate stock in the A-share market has begun to ebb, its vitality will be severely damaged in the short term. Although there may still be some setbacks, because the main cost of these varieties is extremely low, the possibility of continuous sharp falls is also large, so it is not easy to intervene in the short term; After the sharp fall of real estate stocks, which sectors may become the major disaster areas or cash varieties? The author believes that part of the construction machinery sector, the military sector without performance support, and part of the financial securities sector will become important varieties of short selling, and investors should stay away from these types of high speculation.

150 billion, which is the first trading volume in China's A-share market in many years. On the one hand, it shows the increase of stock market investors; On the other hand, it also shows that the stock market has reached a higher risk area. From a fundamental point of view, the current domestic financial policies include deposit reserve, the amount of funds withdrawn from the central bank's open market, the circulation of low priced historical restricted shares during the year, the launch of stock index futures (launched in high areas) The development of QDII ice breaking has had a slight impact on the fundamentals of the A-share market. From the technical perspective, the long-term technical indicators of Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets have appeared at a very high position. The top area of technology is obvious, and even if it rises, its space is relatively limited The huge price difference risk of H is self-evident. Therefore, from the perspective of the combination of fundamental and technical aspects, the A-share market is likely to enter an obvious adjustment in the near future, and the lethality of some varieties may exceed the imagination of ordinary investors. It is suggested that stable investors should stick to the strategy of wait-and-see, long-term funds should not be involved, and short-term funds should be operated with a moderate amount of bargain hunting for low attraction and high potential.

Precautionary sector: military concept unit lacking performance support;

Time focus: China Life Impact on the market when included in the index next Tuesday;

Focus sectors: warrant sector and low price performance growth varieties.