The change of the main clue of the weak refraction hot spot leading the rise in Shenzhen strong Shanghai

Jiangsu Tianding Gandan

After Monday's big rise, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a momentum yesterday, rising only 26.32 points, or 0.94%. However, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 366.44 points, or 4.80%, which shows the obvious characteristics of strong Shenzhen and weak Shanghai. How do you view this information?

　　 Why does Shenzhen become strong and Shanghai weak?

Looking back at the recent A-share market, it has been showing the trend of Shanghai's strength and weakness. The reason for this is mainly because the leading force of Shanghai stock market is SINOPEC (China Petrochemical Corporation 、 Bank of China 、 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China And other first-line index stocks, while Shenzhen Stock Exchange lacks first-line index stocks with such a large market value. In other words, the strength of Shanghai at that time reflected that the leading force of A-share market was the first tier index stocks and heavyweight stocks. As Shenzhen Stock Exchange is currently positioned at small and medium-sized stocks, its trend is weaker than that of Shanghai Composite Index.

However, from the perspective of the market this week, Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and other large market capitalization stocks showed a trend of adjustment, while Sinopec simply continued to show a negative K line. Correspondingly Vanke A S Shenzhen Development ZTE They all rose, with an increase of more than 4%, which promoted the sharp rise of the Shenzhen Composite Index, resulting in the trend of weak Shanghai and strong Shenzhen.

This trend is also reflected in the daily K line chart of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index. At present, the daily K line chart of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has formed a box trend of shock accumulation between 2600 and 2800 points. However, the Shenzhen Composite Index has been singing all the way to new highs. Yesterday, it reached a new historical high of 8020.98 points. Its stock price trend is quite similar to that of Bank of China and ICBC leading the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index in the early days.

　　 Refract the change of the main clue leading to the rise

The question now is, does this mean that the pattern of Shanghai being weak, deep and strong will continue forever? In this regard, the insiders believe that the trend of Shenzhen Composite Index stronger than Shanghai Composite Index may indeed continue for a period of time. On the one hand, the continuation of the current trend of RMB appreciation gives Shenzhen Composite Index a strong long momentum, because Vanke A Shenshen Room A 、 COFCO Property They are all typical RMB asset concept stocks, and their strength will directly promote the bravado of Shenzhen Composite Index.

On the other hand, there has been a slight change in the current hot spot of A-share market, that is, the bull market of the index led by the former first tier index stocks has gradually changed into a diversified bull market led by the second and third tier blue chips. That is to say, the weakness of Shanghai and the strength of Shenzhen actually reflect the change of the main clue of the current A-share market, that is, the large index stocks will gradually give way to the second and third tier blue chips. At the same time, growth stocks with small and medium-sized market capitalization will also come to the front because of the promotion of the annual report. In this regard, the Shenzhen Composite Index also has advantages that the Shanghai Composite Index does not have, because CIMC ZTE's position in the Shenzhen Composite Index is no less than that of Bank of China and ICBC in the Shanghai Composite Index. However, as Bank of China and other bank stocks are facing the pressure of valuation, the Shanghai Composite Index will face the characteristics of momentum. However, due to the promotion of the annual report, the small and medium-sized stocks such as CIMC and ZTE are expected to rise, giving the Shenzhen Composite Index a stronger driving force.

In this way, in the expected time, the characteristics of strong Shenzhen and weak Shanghai are expected to continue, and the existence of this pattern actually means that the current A-share market will be led by growth stocks and real estate stocks with small and medium-sized market capitalization, which once again verifies the view that the pattern of strong Shenzhen and weak Shanghai reflects the change of the main clue of the A-share market, It also shows once again that the current verification of whether the bull market is sustainable can no longer be marked by the Shanghai Composite Index, but needs to be marked by the continuously rising Shenzhen Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index.

　　 Focus on two major sectors

Of course, it is worth pointing out that the weakness of Shanghai and the strength of Shenzhen are only reflected in the index, not in the distribution of funds and opportunities. Because the number of listed companies and growth stocks in Shanghai is not weaker than that in Shenzhen, so the investment opportunities are still mainly concentrated in Shanghai. For example, the number of individual stocks that reached the 10% ceiling in Shanghai yesterday was 50, but only 20 in Shenzhen. At the same time, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 84.56 billion yuan, while that of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was only 42.78 billion yuan. Such quantitative distribution and the distribution of the number of individual shares show that the pattern of strong Shenzhen and weak Shanghai is difficult to change the current mainstream market of Shanghai Stock Exchange.

However, after all, the pattern of strength in Shenzhen and weakness in Shanghai shows that there is a possibility of changing the hot spot of the current A-share market. Following this idea, the author suggests that investors focus on two types of stocks, one is the growth stocks with small and medium-sized market capitalization, that is, the second and third tier blue chips and the leading opportunities of small and medium-sized sectors, Especially those stocks in small and medium-sized sectors that have been recommended by industry analysts in recent research reports, such as Luyang Shares Black Cat 、 Sinoma Technology , mountain and river intelligence, etc. The second is the real estate sector. As the RMB appreciation trend is approaching and the real estate stocks in Shenzhen market are soaring, it is very likely that the real estate stocks will set off a new round of leading market. Therefore, China Merchants Real Estate 、 Gemdale Group , COFCO Real Estate, Shenzhen Nanguang and other stocks can actively pay attention.