Galaxy Securities: where to go after the new high

Galaxy Securities

Wei Zhihua

Last week, the author pointed out in his weekly review that the overall market index will still rise for a long time. This week, the overall market is once again overwhelmed with anger. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new historical high of 2275 points on Friday. Interestingly, in the process of creating a new high, there is no obvious characteristic of deliberately lifting, which further strengthens the bull market expectation of the A-share market.

The recent record high of the market is mainly due to the motivation to do more due to the active allocation of positions of new funds. In particular, the current valuation of second tier blue chips is still reasonable and the industry prospect is relatively optimistic, so they have become the target of the active allocation of new funds. The purchase of such stocks in the secondary market has increased sharply, forming the main driving force for the A-share market to hit a record high. At the current point, the thinking of institutional funds has changed a lot. On the one hand, it is no longer "conspiring" to push a stock higher, so it lacks the enthusiasm to continue to rise in a blowout way, However, as the power of buying is still surging, the market is still calm and can continue to hit new highs. Where to go after the new high? Of course, there is still a new high after the new high, but there are some differences on how to interpret it. Is it to continue the current rising channel of the shock disk or to confirm the effectiveness of breaking the new historical high through a back test? In this regard, the author believes that the probability of the former is relatively high, which is mainly due to two factors. One is that the allocation type position building of new funds has become the mainstream of the market at present, while the capacity of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has not been greatly expanded in the process of creating a new high, which indicates that the position building of new funds is slow, and there is no dumping of all types of positions, This means that the momentum of allocation type position building of new funds is slowly released, and it is long and powerful, which is more conducive to the upward channel trend of A-share market. Second, because the trend of RMB appreciation is still strong in the near future, the central exchange rate of RMB has once again broken through the important threshold of 7.82 and reached a new high since the reform of foreign exchange earning. The trend of RMB appreciation will not only bring abundant funds, but also direct momentum of long run, which means that the energy of bank stocks and real estate stocks will not be released at once, so the bank stocks have a trend of strengthening again. In this way, the Shanghai Composite Index will be difficult to show a downward trend. The appreciation of the RMB will not stop the market. Therefore, it is difficult for the market to fall back, and it is very likely that the market will continue to rise. As for the mainstream individual stocks in the future market, there are two main categories. One is the investment theme of the second tier blue chip stocks, which are typical of commercial chains, wine and food, and whose theme is still consumption oriented. The second is the new generation of strong stocks, mainly automobile stocks and new stocks in small and medium-sized sectors, whose theme is the rapid growth of performance in 2007. The growth of automobile stocks is driven by the export market, while the growth of new stocks is driven by fund-raising projects. In addition, on Friday, Tsinghua Department launched all its individual stocks, which should also be paid attention to. Zhongguancun, as a highly concentrated area of high-quality resources, is full of "Zhibenjia", whose development speed is amazing. The demand for office buildings is very hungry, and the price is about 13000 yuan/m2. Tsinghua direct enterprise Chengzhi Shares (000990) There is a huge scientific research base and commercial building property in Beijing. The self built Innovation Building is the first single building in the main park of Tsinghua Science Park. Located outside the east gate of Tsinghua University, it is a 5A high-end foreign-related office building. It was completed in 2002. At that time, the Beijing property market was not "started", and the land was owned by Tsinghua University. The construction cost was extremely low. The total construction area of this building was 59208 m2, The 5A smart commercial building "Innovation Building", which has three floors underground and 17 floors above the ground and 340 parking spaces, has a net book value of 237 million yuan, only 4000 yuan/㎡, while the market price of Zhongguancun office building is 13000 yuan/㎡, which means that this new building has appreciated by about 500 million yuan. Innovation Building is now used for rental by Chengzhi Shares, with a monthly rent of 171 yuan/㎡, which is the super first-class level of office buildings in China. Chengzhi also owns the property rights of six or seven floors of Tongfang Building next to the Innovation Building, which is leased to IT enterprises at a high price. The two floors of the property with a net worth of 15.19 million yuan received a net rental income of 7.28 million yuan last year, with a return rate of nearly 50%. If calculated based on the 10-year rent recovery, it is at least worth 72.8 million yuan, with an added value of more than 57 million yuan.

IT of Chengzhi Shares