Who will destroy the city and remove the stronghold when hitting the historical high point

Chengdu Daily

After the market broke through 2000 points, the enthusiasm of the market to do more broke out in an all-round way, and a new historical high was close at hand. Yesterday, this page discussed the possibility of launching an impact on 2245 in December. As expected, the market closed at 2100 yesterday, and the stock market in December got off to a good start. In this new round of market, can the two major themes of investment in the previous stage - RMB appreciation and China's economic growth continue to soar, and will new hot sectors appear in the market?

The market continued to hit 2245. Yesterday, the two stock markets hit new highs again. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes both jumped up and opened high. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index directly stood at 2100 at the opening, and then it was strongly shaken and finally closed above 2100. The performance of Shenzhen Stock Exchange is still stronger than that of Shanghai Stock Exchange. At 2100, the nerves of the market became excited. The total turnover of the two cities reached 76.7 billion yuan, creating the largest single day turnover since May this year.

As soon as the market opened yesterday, the main force hit 2100. The market of the two cities both jumped into the sky and opened high, of which three stocks opened with trading limits.

The activity of real estate has driven the hot spots to blossom in an all-round way, and liquor stocks continue to be strong, Wuliangye Sanlian Yang, a new high in four years, rose by 7%; High priced stocks with a rise of more than 3% are everywhere, Sany Heavy Industry 、 Shandong Gold 、 Anhui Heli 、 China heavy truck Closed to the ceiling, Commodity City To 70.40 yuan, Guizhou Moutai It received 69.00 yuan. A total of 16 stocks in the two markets were up and down.

The stock market got off to a good start in December. In this month, the biggest goal of the market is to challenge the historical high of 2245 points. Many analysts and investors are convinced of this. In this round, when the market hit important points several times, hot spots appeared. For example, when the market hit 1223 points, there were stock reform stocks; when the market hit 1678 points, there were non-ferrous stocks; when the market hit 2000 points, there were banks, real estate and steel stocks. So, when hitting the historical high, which sectors will become the main force?

Potential sector

The unchanged theme of the bull market of real estate stocks

Analysts believe that the future market of the real estate sector is more than that of non-ferrous metals in the first half of this year.

Although the real estate index in November has increased by 26% in total, individual stocks have generally increased by 30% - 40%, leading Vanke Beichen Industry Such gains are even more spectacular, but securities people believe that the real estate stock market is far from over. First of all, from the perspective of the appreciation process of Japan's local currency, the real estate sector led the market by 300%, becoming one of the sectors with the largest increase. The bull market in this round is mainly driven by the appreciation of the local currency. As the sector with the greatest benefit from the appreciation of the local currency, the long-term bull market can be said to be a mercy; In addition, judging from the current performance of the real estate sector, the speculation of real estate stocks is just a warm-up, and the real surge is still ahead. Secondly, despite the macro-control policies, the market demand for real estate is still very strong. However, under the control, the performance of real estate will still maintain a strong growth momentum if we change the performance growth model and develop more healthily. Especially, high-quality stocks will maintain the pattern of strong and strong. We can focus on Vanke A, Financial Street, Poly Real Estate Investment promotion real estate, etc; The callback of second tier real estate stocks such as Beichen Industry, Sunshine Shares, Yicheng Shares, COFCO Real Estate, Huafa Shares and Rhine Real Estate are all buying opportunities.

Attacking the high point in the long run also depends on bank stocks

The 2000 point rise of the Shanghai Stock Index is closely related to the performance of blue chips. The trend prospect of such large blue chip stocks is crucial to judge the operation of the index. The insiders believe that there is still broad room for banks to rise.

To summarize the reasons for the surge of blue chip stocks such as bank stocks, analysts believe that fundamental and valuation changes are the main factors. On the one hand, the operating conditions of blue chip listed companies have reversed, which has laid a solid foundation for the rise of blue chip stocks; On the other hand, investors' valuation orientation has changed. In this process, the H-share listing of China Merchants Bank was the fuse. International capital gave A-share investors a new perspective on pricing high-quality stocks.

However, due to the huge increase in the early stage, the market has the requirement of digesting the profit plate, which may bring about some stock price adjustment. Investors can intervene after their callback and hold them in the medium and long term.

Non ferrous metals glow for the second time

The nonferrous metal plate is undoubtedly the most popular plate this year, and the big rise on the first day of the New Year has accumulated a lot of popularity for it. Recently, Shandong Gold and CICC Gold, the leading stocks of this sector, have both stepped out of the obvious main upgrading stage. Therefore, in the process of hitting 2245 points in December, the nonferrous metal plate will once again assume the responsibility of charging.

First of all, while the index continued to rise, the non-ferrous metal sector carried out a stock wash at the beginning of September, and many stocks were corrected by more than 30%. Appropriate adjustments ensured the future upside of the sector. At the same time, from a technical point of view, the plate has obvious signs of accelerating the rise. From the perspective of its industry index, it broke through the high in November and stepped out of the momentum of large-scale increase. Secondly, the sharp rise in the price of international futures nonferrous metals this year has made the performance of this sector generally rise significantly, making it have a good basic plane. Third, although there has been a huge increase this year, the overall P/E ratio of the non-ferrous metal sector is low. At present, the valuation level of the non-ferrous metal sector is still at a low level in the whole market. According to the published data, the profits of nonferrous metal enterprises in the first three quarters of 2006 doubled compared with the same period last year. In this way, the nonferrous metal plate is a rare plate with good cooperation between fundamental and technical aspects, and will return to the previous king style in the future.

The underpricing of the expressway sector started

There are two main reasons for the strength of expressway. First, the industry itself has a good prospect. At present, China's highway industry has entered a period of rapid development. Affected by the continuous prosperity of the macro-economy, the next 15 years will be an important stage of road network construction. The performance of companies with superior road property position will grow rapidly due to the benefit of road network effect. The expressway listed companies have good asset quality, sufficient cash flow, high dividend ratio, and many companies have made valuable commitments in the reform of non tradable shares, which makes the sector have high investment value.

At the same time, the overall growth of this sector lagged behind that of the market in the same period. At present, the overall valuation of the industry is low, and there is room for value regression. At present, the average P/E ratio of highway companies is about 13 times, which is obviously underestimated. The stock price is extremely inconsistent with its excellent fundamentals. Against the background that the market continues to hit new highs, the plate is expected to break out rapidly rising market.

Potential stocks

Beichen Industry (601588)

Beichen Industry, as a Beijing real estate stock listed in the mainland and Hong Kong, not only has a rich land reserve, but also most of its main land is located in the golden area of the "Olympic Business Circle", with huge potential for future appreciation; In addition, the company has formed a trinity business model of real estate development, investment and operation, with a good momentum of development.

Poly Real Estate (600048)

The stock has developed from a regional real estate stock in Guangzhou into a national high-quality real estate enterprise; The land reserves are rich, and the actual controller has a strong government background, so the future development prospects are bright. The share price has hit new highs, and the holders are reluctant to sell. Analysts believe that the stock price will continue to hit new highs in the medium and long term.

Zhongyuan Expressway (600020)

Analysts believe that this stock has the lowest price earnings ratio among the expressway stocks. Recently, the company's Zhengzhou Ease Highway Dual purpose Bridge project has been approved by the railway road and is expected to be completed in 2009. The company's performance has the potential for long-term sustainable development.

　　 China Merchants Bank (600036)

After China Merchants Bank issued H-shares, the market is gradually accepting that good companies should have better P/E ratio and P/B ratio. The net profit growth rate of China Merchants Bank from 2006 to 2008 can reach 32.67%, 35.82% and 38.65% respectively, with an average of 35.71%. The reasonable price of its share price will be around 17 yuan.

Nanshan Aluminum (600219)

After the completion of the private placement, the stock will become a pure aluminum company, and will have the most complete aluminum industry chain in China covering upstream alumina and downstream deep processing. Based on 12 times of dynamic P/E ratio, the target price of the stock in 2007 is 12 yuan.

Liu