Source: China Business Daily Author: Li Junhui
Financial industry
The main theme of the development of the mainland banking industry in 2008 will be to expand and strengthen overseas, comprehensively speed up comprehensive operation and differential survival under brand, innovation and service.
Support point:
1. The accelerated appreciation of RMB in the future is an inevitable trend, and banks are the most direct beneficiaries, and listed banks will benefit from it for a long time.
2. Macroeconomic trend next year: Although the growth rate of exports will decline, the high growth of consumption and investment will still keep China's GDP growth rate at 10.6%, which will lay a solid foundation for the growth of the performance of the mainland banking industry.
3. Next year, the scale of interest bearing assets of listed banks will grow steadily, the net interest margin will expand slightly, the intermediate business will continue to experience explosive growth, the quality of credit assets will continue to improve, and the implementation of new corporate income tax rates will improve performance.
Risk tip: there is a turning point in macroeconomic growth, the interest margin brought about by the marketization process of interest rates has narrowed, and the competition between Chinese and foreign banks has intensified due to the comprehensive opening up.
Real estate industry
Benefiting from the rapid growth of Chinese residents' financial assets and the continued appreciation of the RMB, China's future real estate The overall price will continue to rise.
Support point:
1. The supply of urban housing is still in short supply.
2. The rapid growth of Chinese residents' financial assets has led to the rapid increase of social purchasing power.
3. The liquidity pressure is still huge. The rapid growth of the annual increase of foreign exchange reserves has mainly brought two impacts on the real estate price: some foreign capital flows directly to the real estate industry; Increased liquidity has pushed up asset prices, including real estate. The RMB will continue to appreciate in the future, and even accelerate. In the future, the annual growth of China's foreign exchange reserves is expected to continue to grow rapidly, and real estate prices will continue to face upward pressure.
4. Real estate regulation will not lead to housing price Down. The management's regulation of real estate is mainly aimed at the demand side, and it is difficult to have obvious practical effects; The result of land regulation must be the rising land price. This has also contributed to the rise of real estate prices to a certain extent.
5. Real estate prices in mainstream regions are still optimistic. Housing prices in Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing and Jiangsu remained strong.
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