Ping An Securities Zhang Guojun
matter
On the evening of October 31, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice, deciding to raise the prices of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene by 500 yuan per ton from 0:00 on November 1.
Ping An Viewpoint
Background of this price increase of refined oil
Recently, international crude oil prices have continued to rise sharply. The closing price of NYMEX crude oil futures contract on October 29 has exceeded 93 dollars/barrel. The contradiction between supply and demand caused by the increasing price inversion of domestic refined oil and crude oil has become increasingly prominent.
In fact, at the beginning of September, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on Effectively Doing a Good Job in Market Supply and Price Stability during the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day this year, which clearly requires that no new government price adjustment measures will be introduced in principle this year. The prices of goods and services subject to government guidance and pricing shall be strictly in accordance with the relevant national regulations. It is strictly prohibited to set prices beyond the authority or raise prices without authorization. If the price within the jurisdiction of the local government really needs to be raised due to special reasons, it shall be reported to the National Development and Reform Commission for approval. Now it seems that the international crude oil price remains high after the peak in July and August of previous years, and has repeatedly hit new highs, which is already a "special reason".
As the international crude oil price continues to rise, the international refined oil price also rises sharply, while the domestic refined oil price has not risen with the international refined oil price due to the tight control of the government, resulting in an increasingly large price gap between domestic and foreign prices.
In order to adjust demand, ensure domestic oil product supply and promote energy To save money, the state decided to raise the price of refined oil from 0:00 on November 1. The national average retail benchmark price of gasoline and diesel was adjusted from 5480 yuan/ton and 5020 yuan/ton to 5980 yuan/ton and 5520 yuan/ton respectively; After an increase of 8%, the national average retail prices were 6460 yuan/ton and 5960 yuan/ton, respectively, which increased by 0.40 yuan and 0.46 yuan/liter respectively. The ex factory price of liquefied gas has increased accordingly. The ex factory price of natural gas for industrial use other than fertilizer and the selling price of natural gas for vehicles should be appropriately raised to narrow the price difference between natural gas and the price of alternative energy, and curb the excessive growth of gas for industrial projects and the blind development of gas for vehicles.
After the price of refined oil is adjusted, the relevant service prices or charges for railway freight, civil aviation passenger transport, road transport and other services need to be adjusted appropriately.
The price of railway passenger transport, urban public transport, rural road passenger transport and civil natural gas will not be adjusted. At the same time, the state has made great efforts in agriculture, forestry, fishery, urban public transport and rural road passenger transport taxi The industry will give appropriate subsidies.
The marketization of refined oil prices is a general trend, but the process may be gradual
China's crude oil price has long been in line with international standards, but the price of refined oil has not been marketized because it involves multiple interests. The disadvantages of the unreasonable price formation mechanism are exposed when the crude oil price rises sharply.
In August 2005, due to the sharp increase in the international crude oil price and the limited increase in the domestic refined oil price, the price of crude oil and refined oil was inverted, and there was a serious "oil shortage" in South China. Since October this year, many gas stations in Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shandong and Henan have sold diesel in limited quantities, and even there is no oil to add. The reason is still that the domestic price adjustment of refined oil cannot catch up with the rising speed of international crude oil prices, and local refineries have slowed down.
The most fundamental measure to solve the above problems is to reform the pricing mechanism of refined oil, so that the price of refined oil is gradually market-oriented. This is conducive to letting price signals play a guiding role, realizing effective resource allocation and curbing unreasonable demand; It is conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction; It is conducive to building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Therefore, the marketization of refined oil prices will be the general trend. However, considering the high level of CPI and the affordability of all social strata, the process of reform may be gradual.
Related listed companies
Among listed companies, SINOPEC (China Petrochemical Corporation (600028) and PetroChina (601857) are the direct beneficiaries of this price adjustment and subsequent product oil price reform. Sinopec's refining capacity is the first in China. According to the price increase, the company's EPS in 2007 can be increased by about 6 cents; PetroChina's refining capacity is second only to Sinopec, ranking second in China. This price increase can increase the company's EPS in 2007 by about 2 cents. It should be emphasized that this price adjustment can only reduce the loss of the refining business. In addition, the natural gas business of the two companies will benefit from the rise in natural gas prices, and their profitability will also be improved to a certain extent.
LNG and coal chemical industry Guanghui Shares (600256) will also benefit indirectly. The LNG of the company will directly benefit from the price increase of natural gas, and the coal chemical industry business has a very broad prospect in the future when the price of crude oil continues to rise.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
