Rational pricing range: 2.155-2.847 yuan
Song Shaofeng of Great Wall Securities
Gezhouba Dam (600068) The separable tradable convertible bonds issued will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 11. 217 warrants were obtained for each separate transaction of convertible bonds. This time, the number of Gezhouba CWB1 issued was 3016.3 million, the exercise ratio was 2:1, the duration was one and a half years, and the exercise price was 9.19 yuan. All the funds raised from the exercise of the warrants will be used for the construction of Daguangbei Expressway Project.
The main business of Gezhouba is engineering construction. If we look at the main business of listed companies in the current warrant market, there is no corresponding comparison between warrants and similar companies. However, from the perspective of the investment direction of the funds raised from this separate convertible bond, "all the funds raised from the exercise of warrants will be used for the construction of Daguangbei Expressway Project", so we think that the valuation of this warrant can refer to the expressway and similar port warrants in the current market, Another reason to support this view is that the share characteristics of such warrants are also very similar (after the listing of Gezhouba warrants, the circulation price is about 700 million yuan). From the perspective of the valuation of such warrants, the implied volatility and premium rate are at the high-end level of the market, but this high valuation may be more due to the sharp decline of the positive shares after the listing of warrants. Therefore, we will refer to the valuation of highway and port warrants for Gezhouba warrants, but will give them a lower valuation level in such warrants.
Baosteel's warrants were recently listed, and the premium rate after listing was in the lower limit of the reasonable range we gave, and had touched the position of the second trading board. As a large cap warrant, and with a large proportion obtained by institutional investors through allotment, Baosteel's warrant has relatively strong performance, which indicates that there is sufficient funds for "takeover" in the market at present. However, the recent warrant market is relatively depressed, and the rebound of the equity market has caused the "crowding out effect" on the warrant market to some extent. However, in terms of the share of warrants, Gezhouba warrants are small cap warrants. Referring to the speculation of Kangmei warrants when they were listed not long ago, we do not rule out the possibility of speculation at the beginning of Gezhouba's listing.
According to the logic we have followed, we refer to the valuation level of highway and port warrants, and give Gezhouba warrants a premium rate of about 70% at the initial stage of listing, and an implied volatility of 140%. When Gezhouba's positive shares are in the operating range of 8 yuan to 9 yuan, the B-S equation of the dilution model is used to give the value range of Gezhouba CWB1 between 2.155 yuan and 2.847 yuan.
Referring to the share price of Gezhouba on July 9, when the share price of Gezhouba was around 8.33 yuan, we gave an absolute valuation of about 1.25 yuan, and the rational space for relative valuation was 2.155 to 2.847 yuan. On the first day of listing, the ceiling price was between 1.7 yuan and 1.8 yuan, and the second ceiling price was around 2.3 yuan. We recommend selling at this position.
