Our reporter Shang Yan
Warrant craziness
Under the positive impact of the stamp tax policy, warrants also began to dance, and more crazy than regular shares.
On the evening of April 23, the relevant departments announced that, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation decided to adjust the stamp tax rate on securities transactions from the current 3 ‰ to 1 ‰ from April 24, 2008.
The long-awaited "market rescue" measures had an immediate effect on the first trading day after their release. Thousands of stocks were close to the limit, and the overall market rose by 9.29%.
Driven by the positive shares, the 24 day warrant transaction amount was 73.560 billion yuan, an increase of more than 60% compared with Wednesday, and the collective price rose significantly. The lowest increase of 13 warrants under transaction was close to 15%, while the largest increase of WISCO CWB1 was 33.99%.
In terms of put warrants, the China Southern Airlines put warrants once performed well. At about 10 o'clock in the morning on April 24, the increase was close to 20%, and then it was temporarily suspended by the Exchange. After the resumption of trading in the afternoon, the price of the warrants fell sharply, and the daily increase was 3.32%.
On the morning of April 25, a total of 26.14 billion yuan of call warrants and 7.525 billion yuan of put warrants were traded in both cities, down from yesterday. In the afternoon, the warrant sector continued to differentiate. In the morning, only one of the three warrants that were still in the top 10 in terms of increase was COSCO.
Cosco CWB1 missed the soaring market due to the suspension of the shareholders' meeting held the day before yesterday. After the resumption of trading yesterday, there was a strong supplementary increase, with the closing increase reaching 23%, which corresponds to its regular shares COSCO Shipping (600428. SH) rose 7.99%.
"Stimulating events have a greater impact on warrants. The reduction of stamp duty has a positive impact on the overall market, and the speculation of warrants is exactly the expectation of positive shares."
An analyst from an innovative securities firm in Shanghai said that, however, the entire warrant sector is still in a state of high premium, divorced from the basic theoretical value, and from the perspective of investment value, there is a strong atmosphere of speculation.
Varietal differentiation
The situation of chicken and dog ascending to heaven is not normal. After a short period of soaring, differentiation comes.
Zhang Han, an analyst of Guotai Jun'an Financial Engineering, said that from a structural point of view, after the favorable policy of stamp tax came out, the warrants with relatively cheap valuation, that is, the warrants with relatively optimized implied volatility and premium rate, rose sharply.
The future market of the warrant plate is closely related to the trend of the market. Warrant investment should follow the trend and seek varieties with cheap valuation. Zhang Han believes that warrant trading is more intraday trading, and the opportunity is fleeting, so investment should be extremely cautious.
The analysts of the above innovative securities companies also said that the market was close to the limit on the 24th. As there was no limit on the rise and fall, warrants had conditions for better market performance than regular stocks. However, the rapidly changing characteristics of the warrant market have been realized: it has already surged on the 25th, and it is estimated that there will be more iterations next week.
Betting on warrants is betting on the future. Liu Xuan, an analyst with Ping An Securities, believes that due to the leverage effect, the warrant is a good product for rebound, which is better than the regular stock.
However, the performance of the future market should be based on the overall market. The flat performance of the warrants yesterday is also related to the overall market performance. Liu Xuan said that COSCO subscription performed well yesterday, but was affected by the soaring price of its regular shares. On April 25, the market closed at 3557.75, down 0.71%.
Warrants are basically worthless, but there are still differences in relative valuation levels. Liu Xuan said that, from the current point of view, the valuation level of newly listed warrants is high, while that of steel warrants, especially those of WISCO, is relatively good, and the valuation level of cloud based warrants is relatively low.
As for the only put product in the market - China Southern Airlines' put warrant, Wang Haoxue, an analyst with Galaxy Securities, believes that the temporary suspension of the warrant is the first time that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has used the temporary suspension to manage the changes of put warrants. Previously, the Shanghai Stock Exchange mainly used the method of creating warrants.
Wang believes that at present, although there is no new creation of China Southern Airlines' sell warrant, the creation stock is still there. With the temporary suspension of trading the day before yesterday, the rising space of China Southern Airlines' sell warrant is strictly limited, and investors should try to avoid the risk of the warrant.
