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　　 Changjiang Securities Chen Zhijian

Key points of the report:

Event description:

　　 Boss Electric Released its 2012 annual performance revision forecast, the main contents are as follows: the company's annual net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 26179-280490000 yuan, an increase of about 40% - 50% year on year; In the fourth quarter, the company realized an attributable net profit of 99.77-118.47 million yuan, up 56% - 86% year on year. The company achieved EPS range of 1.02-1.10 yuan in the whole year, including 0.39-0.46 yuan in the fourth quarter.

Event comment:

Benefiting from the recovery of the industry, the revenue growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be around 35%: influenced by factors such as the early recovery of real estate sales, the overall shipment growth rate of the kitchen appliance industry has improved to some extent in the near future; At the same time, based on the company's own multi brand and multi-channel strategy, the company's main business growth will also exceed the industry growth. Against this background, we expect the year-on-year growth rate of the company's revenue in the fourth quarter to be about 35%, with a clear improvement trend. At the same time, based on our prediction on the kitchen appliance industry, we believe that the overall growth rate of the kitchen appliance industry in 2013 will be significantly better than that in 2012. In this context, the company's main business growth rate in 2013 is more certain.

Profitability has improved significantly, driving the company's performance beyond expectations: based on the company's main business growth of about 35%, we expect its net interest rate in the fourth quarter to be between 15.8% and 18.8%, with significant year-on-year and month on month improvements. The main reasons for the improvement of the company's profitability are as follows: first, with the gradual advancement of the company's multi-channel strategy, the proportion of the company's high gross profit channel shipments has steadily increased; Secondly, the company's expenses were properly controlled, and the expense rate declined significantly in the fourth quarter; In addition, the long-term low price of raw materials is also one of the reasons for the sharp increase in profitability. Considering the partial sustainability of improvement factors, we believe that the overall profitability of the company still has room for improvement in 2013.

The "boss" brand benefits from consumption upgrading, and the "famous" brand has a lot of space: at present, the sales of high-end kitchen appliances in China account for about 20% of the total kitchen appliance market. With the continuous rise of house prices and the continuation of the trend of consumption upgrading, the proportion of high-end kitchen appliances will also be steadily increased. In the context of the expected increase in industry concentration, "boss" The brand will definitely benefit from it. On the other hand, although the company's new "celebrity" brand is small at present, its market space for mass kitchen appliances is extremely huge. In the short term, its scale will also be rapidly improved, and its growth space is promising in the long run.

The long-term growth of the company continues to be good, and the "recommended" rating is maintained: at present, the company's "multi brand" and "multi-channel" strategies are steadily advancing, and the company's main business growth is more certain against the background of gradual recovery of industry demand; On the other hand, with the expansion of the company's high gross profit channels such as e-commerce channels and the strengthening of control, the company's profitability also has room for further improvement. We are optimistic about the company's long-term growth. It is estimated that the company's EPS will be 1.06, 1.40 and 1.78 yuan respectively in 12-14 years, corresponding to the current share price PE of 19.76, 15.02 and 11.79 times, maintaining the "recommended" rating.

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