Hot columns money flow Thousands of shares and thousands of comments Individual stock diagnosis Latest rating Simulated transaction mobile terminal

　　 Changjiang Securities Liu Yuanrui

Event description:

　　 SAIC Group The third quarter report of 2012 was released. In the third quarter, the company realized an operating revenue of 117.621 billion yuan, up 4.9% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.347 billion yuan, up 1.4% year on year.

From January to September 2012, the company realized an operating revenue of 353.182 billion yuan, up 8.3% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.131 billion yuan, up 3.8% year on year.

Event comment:

Thanks to the business structure and asset quality, the company's revenue grew steadily: under the situation of limited demand growth and the smoke of price war in the car market, the company's revenue still grew steadily, mainly due to two aspects. On the one hand, the company's business focused on passenger vehicles, and this year the passenger vehicle market was significantly better than the commercial vehicle market, The factor of business structure is one of the reasons why the company's revenue is better than the market. On the other hand, the companies in the company's passenger car business performed well, and Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai GM, and self owned brand businesses outperformed the industry, further contributing to the company's business growth.

Profitability has declined, but it is expected to stabilize in the future: 1) Gross profit margin has declined significantly, but it is not historically comparable. The gross profit margin of the company in the third quarter was 15.2%. However, because Shanghai GM has not consolidated its statements since September, the gross profit margin of the company has declined, so it is not comparable to the historical gross profit level of the company. 2) The decline of net interest rate is the reflection of real profitability. Because this indicator excludes the impact of GM's non consolidation, and at the same time, during the third quarter of the company, the expense rate (9.21) declined by 1.4 percentage points year on year, 0.24 percentage points month on month, and the company's net interest rate still declined by 1.16 percentage points year on year, 0.81 percentage points month on month, mainly due to the increased price reduction and promotion efforts in the car market in the third quarter, This affects the profitability of the company. In the future, as the car market has turned from weak to strong, and in the case of the transfer of Japanese car sales, the price reduction and promotion efforts are no longer expected to expand, the company's profitability should be able to stabilize month on month.

Benefiting from the migration of consumption structure, the company is still able to grow steadily. 1) In the medium and long term, the domestic automobile market has entered the initial popularization stage, and the consumer structure has undergone obvious changes. The consumer structure has become younger, the consumer concept has been upgraded, and the upgrade and purchase have been accelerated. This change has put forward new requirements for the brand, performance, and safety of automobile products, and the company's products relatively meet these needs, which is expected to benefit in the long term; 2) In the short term, the following companies, Buick ENCORE, Volkswagen New Lavida, new Santana, Skoda Yeti and other new cars can still be expected. In addition, the quality and brand of the company's products can still maintain the steady growth of the company in 2013.

After comprehensive consideration, the company is rated as "recommended": it is estimated that the company's EPS in 2012 and 2013 will be 1.96 yuan and 2.06 yuan respectively, and the PE will be 6.5 times and 6.2 times.

[SAIC Group Bar]