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　　 Changjiang Securities Liu Yuanrui, Wang Hetao

Event description:

　　 Changbao Shares The third quarter report of 2012 was released today. During the reporting period, the company realized an operating income of 2.617 billion yuan, down 2.41% year on year; The operating cost was 2.199 billion yuan, down 3.14% year on year; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 156 million yuan, down 2.58% year on year; EPS is 0.39 yuan.

Among them, in the third quarter, the company realized 941 million yuan of operating revenue, down 10.39% year on year; The operating cost was 789 million yuan, down 10.80% year on year; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 64 million yuan, down 8.88% year on year; EPS was 0.16 yuan in the third quarter and 0.12 yuan in the second quarter.

Event comment:

In the third quarter, the revenue increased significantly month on month, while the year-on-year decrease was smaller: the company's main products were oil well (casing) pipes and high-pressure boiler pipes. Since this year, the supply and demand pattern of oil well (casing) pipes has been relatively good, and the profitability has also improved to a certain extent year-on-year; Against the background of domestic thermal power investment slowing down and demand falling back, the company carried out the technical transformation of the production line of high-pressure boiler tubes in the first half of the year, and the operating income and gross profit margin of high-pressure boiler tubes decreased significantly year on year.

However, with the production of technical transformation projects being reversed, the production of high-pressure boiler tubes of the company picked up significantly in the third quarter, which was the main reason for the 17.52% month on month growth of the company's operating income in the third quarter, and the year-on-year decline of revenue in a single quarter began to narrow under the background of the decline in the price of seamless tubes. With the release of new capacity of high-pressure boiler tubes, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to recover month on month.

Due to the slowdown of the order demand for thermal power units this year and the increasingly fierce market competition, the company's performance of high-end imported substitute products has been delayed. From this point of view, the high growth driven by import substitution is not just a handful.

The gross profit margin was basically flat, and the income growth led to the improvement of net profit on a month on month basis: the gross profit margin of the company in the third quarter was 16.17%, which was basically the same as 16.22% in the second quarter. With the recovery of capacity utilization, the company's comprehensive profitability declined slightly, which should be due to the large price decline in the third quarter. Therefore, the recovery of operating revenue was the main reason for the improvement of net profit in the third quarter.

The expenses increased, the inventory decreased, and the net operating cash flow decreased month on month: in the third quarter, the company's total expenses were 77 million yuan, a slight increase of 72 million yuan month on month in the second quarter. The company's inventory at the end of the quarter was 608 million yuan, down from 693 million yuan at the end of the second quarter.

In the short term, the company relies on three traditional main businesses, namely, oil well pipe, casing pipe and high-pressure boiler pipe, while in the medium and long term, it relies on variety structure adjustment: the company's existing product structure includes oil well pipe, casing pipe and high-pressure boiler pipe. Under the condition of ensuring the stable production increase of the traditional main business, the company actively promotes the adjustment of product structure, and constructs projects such as CPE and ultra long U-tube, which will become the main driving force for the release of the company's future performance. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2012 and 2013 will be 0.55 yuan and 0.74 yuan respectively, maintaining the rating of "prudent recommendation".

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