Sina tip: This is a column of individual stock comments. It is only the personal opinion and analysis of securities consultants on relevant individual stocks or sectors, not a formal news report. Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity. Investors will operate accordingly at their own risk. Please refer to the announcement of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges for all accurate information about the shares. Changjiang Securities Ge Jun
Event description:
Orchid scientific innovation The third quarter report of 2012 was released. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.844 billion yuan, with a negative year-on-year growth of 1.0%; The operating profit was 1.951 billion yuan, up 14.4% year on year; The net profit reached 1.388 billion, up 20.2% year on year; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 1.504 billion yuan (equivalent to EPS 1.32 yuan), up 27.3% year on year, and down 29.9% month on month in the third quarter.
Event comment:
The company's performance met our expectations, but was lower than the market expectations, maintaining the 12 year profit forecast.
The drop in coal price and the drop in urea price led to a significant decline in gross profit margin. The gross profit rate of the company in the third quarter was 43.8%, significantly lower than 53.9% in the second quarter. We believe that this is mainly due to the impact of the falling coal price gradually appearing in the third quarter, and the urea price falling from a high level, while the coal mining cost is still rising rigidly.
The price is down, the operating revenue is still growing month on month, the company's shipment is good, but the quality of revenue is declining.
With the price of coal and urea, the company's main products, falling, the company's revenue in the third quarter still increased by 3.5% month on month, which shows that the company's sales situation is still relatively normal, and the decline in coal demand has little impact on the company's shipments. The decrease of nearly 200 million yuan in inventory also confirms this view. However, the company's cash income from operating activities is far less than the revenue, which shows that the sales pressure is still high and more relaxed credit conditions have been adopted.
The return on investment has declined rapidly month on month, and its contribution to performance growth will gradually decline. The investment income of Yamei Daning in the third quarter was 93.66 million yuan, down about 46% from 172.76 million yuan in the second quarter, a large decline. In addition, since the resumption of production of Asia America Daning in September last year, the investment income base will further increase in the fourth quarter (the fourth quarter of 2011 contributed 144.88 million yuan of investment income in a single quarter). As far as the current situation is concerned, the investment income in a single quarter of the fourth quarter is expected to show a negative year-on-year growth.
The price of anthracite is relatively stable, and the growth of production promotes the company's performance, so it is rated as "recommended". We believe that the company's anthracite, as an important chemical coal, is relatively less affected by the economic downturn and the decline of downstream demand for coal, and as a scarce coal, the future coal price will be relatively stable; The integrated capacity of 1.5 million tons of coking coal in Linfen next year is expected to contribute to the output, and Yuxi Mine is expected to be put into production in 2014. Good endogenous growth is an important guarantee for the company's performance growth; We maintain the company's 12 year forecast of EPS 1.68 yuan, but due to the relative pessimism of coal types other than chemical coal in the future, we lowered the relevant coal prices in 13-14 years. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 13-14 years will be 1.76 yuan and 2.16 yuan respectively, corresponding to the PE of 11.7 times, 11.1 times and 9.1 times. The valuation is reasonable and the rating of "recommended" is given.
