Sina tip: This is a column of individual stock comments. It is only the personal opinion and analysis of securities consultants on relevant individual stocks or sectors, not a formal news report. Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity. Investors will operate accordingly at their own risk. Please refer to the announcement of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges for all accurate information about the shares. Changjiang Securities Liu Yuanrui, Wang Hetao
Event description Benxi steel plate Release the performance forecast for the third quarter of 2012. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2012 will be 110 million to 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80.76% - 85.89%; EPS is 0.04-0.05 yuan; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the third quarter was - 0.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.39% - 119.09%; EPS was -0.01-0.00 yuan, and 0.02 yuan in Q2.
Event comment: The sharp drop in net profit in the third quarter was due to the drop in volume and price: after the third quarter of the traditional slack season, downstream demand fell back. Under the pressure of supply, the steel price in the domestic market fell rapidly in July and August, and the plate price also fell sharply. Although the steel price rebounded slightly in mid September, the monthly average price still fell in September. On the whole, the price of domestic plate fell about 12% month on month in the third quarter.
The rapid decline in steel prices forced steel enterprises to reduce their output through maintenance and other means. The company was no exception. The output continued to decline in July and August. Assuming that the output level of August was maintained in September, the company's quarterly output in the third quarter fell nearly 7.5% month on month. It is a high probability event that the operating income of the company declines month on month due to the volume reduction and price reduction.
In terms of cost, the decline of steel price also forced the domestic mineral price to decline. The domestic mineral price continued to fall in the third quarter, with the quarterly average price falling by about 11.4%. However, the decline process of mineral price lags behind that of steel price. Considering the turnover of raw materials, the cost pressure of the company is still heavy in the third quarter, and it is expected that the probability of the company's comprehensive gross margin falling in the third quarter is large.
The decline in both revenue and gross profit margin led to a sharp decline in the company's net profit in the third quarter, which is likely to become a common phenomenon in the third quarter reports of listed steel companies.
Wait patiently for the recovery of the industry, increase the control of resources and gradually extend the industrial chain in the long run: the recovery of the short-term profitability of the company still needs to wait for the recovery of the industry due to the product structure model dominated by plates, and in the long run, the distribution of resources will gradually expand the control of the company in the industrial chain. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2012 and 2013 will be 0.07 yuan and 0.18 yuan respectively, maintaining the rating of "prudent recommendation".
